應用修正式德菲法探討影響消費者購買大台北地區預售屋之決策因素

Using Modified Delphi Method to Identify the Decision-Making Factors Affecting the Consumers’Intention to Purchase Pre-Sale Houses at Taipei Metro Area.

自1960年代預售屋制度出現至今，成屋及預售屋一直是並存於台灣房屋市場的兩種主要類型。然而，隨著近年來房屋價格的不斷攀升致使市場競爭日益激烈，各種關於預售屋的問題也越來越受到關注。為了解影響消費者購買預售屋之決策因素，本研究首先透過文獻分析來建立研究分析架構，其內容包括整體規劃、購屋者經濟條件、周遭環境、生活機能、交通便利性、賣方因素、地區未來發展性、社會因素等八個分析面向，依據既有研究文獻對於各面向所設定之分析項目，本研究進一步歸結出29項決策因素，並運用修正式德菲法進行專家問卷調查與分析，以大台北地區為研究範圍探討消費者在預售屋選購過程中所考量的分析面向、決策因素及其相對重要性。
依據前述調查與分析之結果，本研究發現在所有分析面向中消費者最重視建築整體規劃、購屋者經濟條件及生活機能，而相對較不重視社會因素；而在29項決策因素中最受到消費者重視的前三項依序則為整體規劃、自身還款能力、可貸款成數，而最不受到重視的則為行銷廣告。綜上所述，本研究結果不僅可作為消費者在選購預售屋之依據，亦可提供建設公司及建築師作為定位其住宅產品時之參考。

Since the system of pre-sale house emerged in the 1960s, existing house and pre-sale house have become two major types of property in Taiwan’s housing market. However, with the constant rise of housing prices, not only the market competition continues to increase in intensity, there is also a growing concern about pre-sale house.To identify the decision-making factors affecting the consumers’intention to purchase pre-sale house, this study reviews the existing literature and establish a research structure, which contains 8 analytic dimensions: master plan, economic condition, surrounding environment, neighborhood amenities, traffic, market supply, potential for future development, and social factors. To further break down the compositions of these interrelated dimensions, this study identifies 29 decision-making factors in total. By focusing on the case of Taipei Metropolitan Area, here the Modified Delphi Method and Expert Survey are conducted to examine the relative significance of these analytic dimensions and decision-making factors.
As observed in this study, master plan, economic condition and neighborhood amenities are the highest-valued dimensions among all, while the social factors are the lowest-valued. For the factors affecting the consumers’decisions on purchasing pre-sale houses, most of the survey respondents give their highest priority to master plan, loan repayment ability and loan-to-value ratio, with the factor of marketing and advertisement rated as the least significance. In sum, the result of this study not only can be taken as the guidance for potential consumers of pre-sale house; it can also provide reference for the developers and architects in terms of product positioning.