邁向更嚴謹的體育運動學術研究：複製危機與預先註冊

Advancing towards more rigorous academic research in sports: Replication crisis and preregistration

嚴謹的學術研究是深化體育運動（sports）知識與提升運動表現背後的核心原則。科學知識是在長期累積中不斷發展，而學術研究即是科學知識累積的主要方式。由於學術研究的重要性與發表壓力的相互交織，可能使得研究者為求研究能夠刊登至期刊，而採用「有問題的研究做法（questionable research practices, QRP）」，以求研究結果符合假設，而為減少QRP之發生，「預先註冊（preregistration）」應運而生。本文之目的旨在簡介QRP可能產生之影響與預先註冊之作法與重要性；在概述QRP可能產生原因與探討其負面影響後，則進行介紹預先註冊之種類、方法與其可解決之QRP問題，最後再提出對預先註冊之優勢、潛在限制與挑戰。具體而言，QRP包括利用不同或僅具微小差異的統計方法，重複對相同數據進行統計檢驗，甚至刪除或擴充當前分析之資料之「p值追求（phacking）」，或是根據事後資料所發現之結果，設立新的研究假設之「結果後見之明（HARKing）」。QRP可能導致「可重複性或再現性（reproducibility）」與「可複製性（replicability）」之疑慮，進而引發學界研究對於「複製危機（replication crisis）」之探討。預先註冊其指透過實驗開始前即於受認證之平臺，公開登錄具時間戳記（time-stamped）之研究計畫，藉此減少研究者發生QRP之情形。預先註冊依據註冊內容是否經同儕審查（peer-reviewed），可將其分為刊登至無同儕審查機制（unreviewed）網路平臺之「網路平臺之預先註冊」，以及將研究計畫投稿至具同儕審查機制（reviewed）之「註冊報告（registered report）」。期望透過本文提供國內體育與運動科學（physical education and sports science）領域研究者瞭解QRP與預先註冊之相關知識，並呼籲預先註冊可作為未來實際研究設計和執行模式之效仿楷模，以促進體育運動研究設計的透明度與嚴謹度。

Rigorous academic research is the core principle behind deepening the knowledge of sports and exercise science and enhancing athletic performance. Scientific knowledge continually develops through long-term accumulation, and academic research is the primary way in which scientific knowledge is accumulated. Due to the importance of academic research and the pressure to publish, researchers may resort to“questionable research practice (QRP)”to ensure that their research results conform to their hypotheses and can be published in journals. To reduce the occurrence of QRP,“preregistration”has emerged as a practice. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the potential impact of the QRP and the importance and methods of preregistration. After summarizing the potential causes and negative effects of QRP, this article introduces the types and methods of preregistration and its ability to address QRP issues. Finally, the article discusses the advantages, potential limitations, and challenges of preregistration. Specifically, QRP includes using different or only slightly different statistical methods, repeatedly conducting statistical tests on the same data, and even“p-value chasing,”which involves deleting or expanding data analyzed in the current analysis based on the results discovered from post-hoc data analysis, or setting up new research hypotheses based on the results discovered after the fact (HARKing). QRP might lead to concerns about“reproducibility”and“replicability”, triggering academic research on the“replication crisis”. Preregistration involves publicly registering a research plan with a“time stamp”on a certified platform before the experiment begins, with the aim of reducing the occurrence of QRP among researchers. Preregistration can be classified into“unreviewed”preregistration on online platforms without peer review mechanisms and“registered reports”by submitting research plans to peer-reviewed mechanisms. This article aims to provide domestic researchers in the fields of physical education and sports science with knowledge of QRP and preregistration. It advocates for preregistration to serve as a model for future research design and execution in promoting the transparency and rigor of sports research.