人口結構轉變對總體經濟的影

當前台灣與全球都存在人口密度太高，人口快速老化問題。但台灣尚有少子化問題，即新生兒驟減。有些人認為問題不嚴重，主要是強調人口密度太高及人口過剩造成資源壓力；但問題在於過剩的是老人而非小孩，實際上，小孩子已處於十分欠缺狀態，現在不處理，時效上會來不及。

The fertility rate in Taiwan has dropped rapidly in recent years, as reflected by a decline in the number of newborns from 414,000 in 1981 to 216,419 in 2004. Moreover, there were only 131,453 newly wedded couples in 2004, down by more than 40,000 (or 23.24%) from 171,483 in 2003. With the number of newly wedded couples serving as a leading indicator of the number of newborns, the latter is expected to fall below 200,000 in the next few years if the current trend continues. These demographic developments have immense social, economic, political, and educational implications for Taiwan. They call for the formulation of short-, mid-, and long-term strategies to address the challenges of a falling fertility rate, an ageing society, and a declining population. This article attempts to assess the effects of rapid population transition in Taiwan, particularly the impacts of decreasing fertility and marriage rates on economic growth and labor force participation. It argues that structural changes in population should be given greater consideration in the development of mid- and long-term policy responses.