COVID-19三級警戒與犯罪發生

COVID-19 LEVEL 3 ALERT AND CRIME IN TAIWAN

本文分析三級警戒（2021年5月19日至2021年7月26日）所實施的小規模封城（soft lockdown）對於犯罪發生數（crime incident）的影響。根據差異中的差異模型（difference-in-differences）估計結果指出，總犯罪數在三級警戒期間減少21%;進一步將犯罪項目區分成財產犯罪（property crime）、暴力犯罪（violent crime）與其他犯罪，均發現各項犯罪數於三級警戒期間減少。此種犯罪數下降的效果存在兩個層面的異質性:在年齡方面，財產犯罪與暴力犯罪的30–59歲被害人數，相較於其他年齡層有較為明顯的減少，可能原因在於，工作人口的生活型態受到三級警戒影響程度較大，尤其待在家的時間提升之下，減少成為被害人的可能性。在地區方面，實證結果則指出直轄市犯罪數下降的規模高於非直轄市。

We analyze the impact of a soft lockdown under a Level 3 alert (from May 19, 2021 to July 26, 2021) on crime incidents in Taiwan. Difference-in-differences estimators show that total crime incidents significantly fell by 21% during the lockdown. The results also suggest that property crime, violent crime, and other crime decreased during the Level 3 alert. However, these effects were not homogeneous: the number of victims whose ages were between 30–59 significantly decreased, suggesting the huge changes in routine activity due to the soft lockdown, especially spending more time at home. Finally, the extent of reductions in crime in municipalities were larger than other counties or cities.