國外旅客與國內旅遊之重要性:來自新冠疫情期間觀光旅館之實證

The Importance of International Travelers and Domestic Tourism: Evidence from Tourist Hotels during COVID-19

本文探討新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情期間，邊境控管對觀光旅館所造成的動態損失，以及國內旅遊是否能補足國外旅客之缺口。為了比較主要應變數於疫情前後之差異，實證設計使用擬似定群（pseudo panel），以過往2016年至2018年作為對照組，而2019年至2021年為實驗組，進行差異中之差異（difference-in-differences）與事件研究法（event-study）估計出各期之係數，分析疫情前之係數是否滿足平行趨勢假設，以及疫情期間係數之動態變化。發現疫情期間國內旅遊反映了染疫風險變化，在零本土案例期間，旅遊人數遠勝往年，但國內旅遊之挹注無法吸收限制國外旅客入境對觀光旅館造成之營收衝擊。嚴格邊境控管至少對觀光旅館造成30%營收減損，而國內旅遊反而偏好人口密度高的地區。

This article studies the impacts of restricting international travelers during COVID-19 on the performance of Taiwanese tourist hotels. Using monthly panel of hotel operations and leveraging unique epidemic situations in Taiwan,my DID event-study estimates show dynamic effects in 2020 and 2021. The costs of restricting international travelers are around 30% of the revenues when people can travel freely with minimal health risks. However,while the number of domestic travelers rose well above pre-pandemic levels,the increase still did not make up for the losses from the absence of foreign visitors. Finally,domestic tourism did not shift away from the most densely-populated areas as tourist hotels in Taipei have experienced large increases in domestic travelers.