新冠疫情衝擊我國大宗穀物供應鏈之總體與農業相關產業經濟影響評估

AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS ON TAIWAN FROM BULK GRAIN SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS DUE TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

自2020年初，新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情全球延燒，隨著全球停工時間延長，消費與生產萎縮、航運延宕、全球供應斷鏈等狀況接踵而來，使得國際貿易告急，所產生的總體與產業經濟衝擊恐比疫情擴散還要嚴重。本文的主要研究目的為評估新冠疫情衝擊我國大宗穀物（大豆、小麥、玉米，通稱黃小玉）供應鏈對我國總體與農業相關產業的經濟影響。由於涉及大豆、小麥、玉米上中下游供應鏈及相關產業，本研究採用可計算一般均衡模型及其資料庫，新增建置農糧模組，特別將整體糧食系統上中下游產業鏈之間的相互依存關係納入考量。
研究結果顯示，在大豆、小麥、玉米等大宗穀物進口價格上升50%的情境（輕度進口糧價上漲）、進口價格上升100%的情境（中度進口糧價上漲）與進口價格上升200%的情境（重度進口糧價上漲）下，我國GDP的負面衝擊大約在0.39–1.76個百分點，與情境一（基準情境）相比損失746億元至3，368億元之GDP。就個別產業而言，受負面衝擊影響的產業主要為毛豬、其他畜牧產品與漁產品三個初級農糧產業。在次級產業部門中，最為不利的前五名為動植物油脂、製粉、動物飼料、肉類加工與屠宰生肉等產業。如發生重度進口糧價上漲的情境，除上述五個次級部門外，乳品、蔬果加工、烘焙食品糖果等均會受到嚴重衝擊。初級農糧產業的產值損失約為200–596億元，次級農糧產業的產值損失更大，約為584–1，678億元。

Since the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally. As the global shutdown is prolonged, consumption and production shrinkage, shipping delays, and global supply chain disruptions have followed one after another, making the economic impact more severe than the spread of the epidemic itself. The main purpose of this paper is to assess the economic impact of COVID-19 on Taiwan’s economy and agriculture-related industries through its disruptions of Taiwan’s bulk grain (soybean, wheat, corn) supply chain. As the upstream, midstream and downstream supply chains of soybeans, wheat, and corn and related industries are involved, this study adopts the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and database with an expanded agricultural module.
Simulation results show that, under a scenario of a 50% rise in import price of bulk grains, a 100% rise in import prices and a 200% rise in import prices, the negative impact on Taiwan’s GDP is about 0.39 to 1.76 percent. Converted into absolute amounts, this is equivalent to a loss of NT$74.6 billion to NT$336.8 billion of GDP in one year. As far as individual industries are concerned, the industries mostly affected are mainly three primary agricultural and food product sectors: hogs, other livestock products, and fishery products. Among sub-sectors, the top five most disadvantaged are animal and vegetable oils and fats, milling, animal feed, meat processing, and meat slaughtering. Under the scenario of a 200% rise in import price, in addition to the above five sub-sectors, dairy products and vegetable and fruit processing will be severely impacted. The output loss of the primary agricultural food products sector is approximately NT$20-59.6 billion, and the output loss of the secondary agricultural and food products sector is approximately NT$58.4-167.8 billion.