探討失效機率模型對風險基準檢查結果的影響

Investigating the Impact of Failure Probability Models on Risk-Based Inspection Outcomes

風險基準檢查（Risk Based Inspection, RBI）技術已被廣泛使用於石化與化工業之固定設備的洩漏風險評估與檢查計畫制定。同時，該方法的分析結果可做為安全關鍵設備鑑別、安全關鍵任務制定之基礎。因此，方法本身的準確性影響重大事故危害（Major Accident Hazaed, MAH）的風險控制有效程度。儘管已有許多文獻探討RBI，但RBI分析中，有關失效機率的評估部份仍無法完全反應設備的真實狀況。本文為先期研究，目的是回顧RBI的執行過程及細部分析方法中，可能造成失效分析有保守之虞的狀況，並參考相關文獻研擬出實務上的可行解決方案，提供業者參考。

The technology of Risk Based Inspection (RBI) has been widely adopted for the assessment of leakage risks and the formulation of inspection plans for fixed equipment in the petrochemical and chemical industries. Concurrently, the analytical results of this method have been utilized as the foundation for the identification of safety critical equipment and the establishment of safety critical tasks. Consequently, the intrinsic accuracy of the approach has been critical in influencing the efficacy of Major Accident Hazard (MAH) risk management. Despite the abundance of literature discussing RBI, the segment of the RBI analysis concerning failure probability evaluations has not completely captured the real state of the equipment. This article represents a preliminary investigation, aiming to retrospectively analyze the implementation process of RBI and pinpoint situations within the detailed analysis methods that might engender unduly conservative failure assessments. Practical solutions, informed by related literature, have been formulated for industry reference.