新冠肺炎對台灣旅遊業的影響研究──以社會成本為干擾變數

A study on the impact of COVID-19 on Taiwan's tourism industry-with social cost as an intervene variable

新冠肺炎（Covid-19）肆虐全球超過兩年，造成全球各國旅遊業大幅衰退，旅行業受到疫情影響，我國在三級警戒下，截至110年7月19日止，已有2253家旅行業申請薪資及營運補貼。本研究參考各國疫苗旅遊護照管理措施制度為自變數，以社會成本為主要干擾變數，社會成本的兩個子構面：一為個人自由度為干擾變數，二為國家整體安全利益為干擾變數，以解決台灣旅遊業困境為應變數，成為本研究的研究架構，另以居住防疫旅館天數、居家隔離天數、入境檢測陽性人數與國內每日檢測出陽性人數四個統計數字與現況比較做為本研究之結論以提供政府實施疫苗護照之參考。研究結果重點如下：1.社會成本干擾變數不成立；2.社會成本中個人自由度之干擾變數不成立；3.社會成本中國家利益之干擾變數亦不成立；4.四項疫情指標有偏向寬鬆的傾向。綜合上述本研究所得國內此階段的研調查結果以「逐步開放」做為旅遊政策，為台灣旅遊業找到生機但如何逐步開放則考驗政府管理當局的經驗與智慧，本研究僅做學術性建議。

The pandemic of Covid-19 has ravaged the world for more than two years, causing a sharp decline in the tourism industry around the world. In Taiwan, according to statistics from the Travel Industry Quality Assurance Association, 2,253 travel companies have applied for wage and operating subsidies by July 19, 2021,. This study refers to the national vaccine travel passport management measures system as the independent variable, the social cost as the main interference variable, and two sub-dimensions of the social cost: one is the individual freedom as the interference variable, and the other is the overall national security interest as the interference variable. Taking solving the dilemma of Taiwan's tourism industry as a contingency factor, became the research structure of this study. In addition, the four statistics of the number of days in epidemic prevention hotels, the number of days in home isolation, the number of people who tested positive for entry and the number of people who tested positive every day in China were used as the comparison with the current situation. The conclusions of this study serve as a reference for governments to implement vaccine passports. The results of this study are as follows: the interference variable of social cost does not significant; the the interference variable of individual freedom in social cost does not hold; the interference variable of national interest in social cost does not significant; and the four epidemic indicators tend to be looser. Based on mentioned research findings in Taiwan at this stage, gradual opening up is the tourism policy to find vitality for Taiwan’s tourism industry. However, how to gradually open up will test the experience and wisdom of the government management authority. This research is only for academic suggestions.