日本核電發展的經驗與挑戰

The Experience and Challenges of Japan's Nuclear Power Development

核電是一項需要長期投入卻又容易因為社會觀念改變而承受壓力的技術。2011年3月11日福島(Fukushima)核事故爆發後，部分國家毅然決定廢棄核電。反觀身為事故直接受害者的日本，卻並未告別核電。從表面上看，過去十年日本似乎已經吸取了教訓並做出改變。不過，2011年之前的願景，仍然持續發揮影響，日本政府的基本立場並未根本動搖。雖然日本聲稱將盡可能減少對核電的依賴，但仍將核電作為基本負載電源，甚且以2030年核電在供電組合比重20~22%為目標。在國內民眾的強烈反對下，日本為何堅持保留這項甚具爭議的能源？當前日本核能發電的狀況為何？未來政策目標又能否實現？福島核事故已逾十載，本文擬就上述問題，梳理日本核電發展的演進與未來展望。

Nuclear power is a technology that requires long-term commitment, but is vulnerable to pressure due to changes in social concepts. In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident on March 11, 2011, some countries decided to phase out nuclear power. However, as the direct victim of the accident, Japan did not say goodbye to nuclear power. On the surface, Japan seems to have learned a tough lesson and made a number of changes to its policy in the past decade. Yet the government and nuclear industry have hardly changed attitudes towards nuclear power. While Japan claims to reduce its dependence on nuclear power as much as possible, it maintains nuclear power as a baseload electricity source. And Japan is still aiming for a nuclear power share of 20–22 % by 2030. Why does Japan insist on retaining this controversial energy source? What is the current situation of Japan's nuclear power? Can future policy goals be achieved? On the tenth anniversary of the Fukushima accident, this article intends to analyze the essence and evolution of Japan's nuclear power development.