疫情後兩岸經貿互動趨勢與供應鏈地位變化

Trends in Cross-Strait Trade Interactions and Changes in Supply Chain Status for Post-Covid-19 Period

後疫情時代，全球經貿格局面臨新的挑戰，衝擊產業供應鏈的解構與再重組。本研究旨在探討疫情對兩岸貿易結構的影響，特別是運用社會網絡分析的「結構洞」和「點度中心性」等量化方法，使用 2018 年和 2020年的全球貿易資料庫，分析兩岸在全球貿易網絡中的地位變化。根據「結構洞」的「有效規模」和「限制」兩種衡量指標的變化，突顯中國大陸於疫情爆發後，仍能維繫其作為全球貿易網路中心的地位並持續改善，但美國地位反有所下降。而臺灣於全球貿易網絡「結構洞」的「有效規模」提升，但同時「限制」也隨之擴大，表明我國的貿易網絡地位變化趨勢仍未確定。另由全球貿易網絡點度中心性來看，中國大陸出口動能在疫情後進一步持續加強，但進口動能則因國內需求影響而減弱。美國的進出口動能均下降，但臺灣的進出口動能同時上升，反映此時期臺灣製造業的出口動力強勁，也受惠於如「投資臺灣三大方案」等政策帶來的經濟品質提高。 綜合以上，本文以疫情爆發前後為分析參考點，旨在探討兩岸與主要國家於全球貿易網絡地位與形態變化，超越傳統貿易集中度或貿易依賴的思維，輔以全球在疫情後政策思維與供應鏈風險防範的探討，期能提供一種得以客觀評估各國經貿地位轉變的比較基礎。

It may be witnessed the outbreak of Covid-19 has brought challenges to the global economy and that trade have accelerated the transformation of the global industrial supply chain. Based on the trade map for 2018 and 2020, this study aims to explore the influence of the pandemic on the cross-strait trade structure, and especially to analyze the shift of both China’s and Taiwan’s trade status in the global trade network by performing a social network analysis approach with both structural holes and degree centrality. According to the changes in both Burt’s measures in the “effective size” and constraint, the study suggests that after the Covid-19 outbreak, China maintains its position as the center of the global trade network, but the U.S’ status has declined a bit. However, both Burt’s measures for the “effective size” and constraint of Taiwan’s trade network have expanded, indicating an unsure trend in its trade network position. Furthermore, in terms of the degree-centrality in the global trade network, China’s export momentum increased further after the epidemic, but import momentum weakened due to the negative impact of the Covid-19 on domestic demand. The U.S. export and import dynamics declined, but Taiwan’s import and export dynamics rose simultaneously, reflecting not only the strong export dynamics of Taiwan’s manufacturing industry during this period but also the improved economic quality due to performing “Three Major Programs for Investing in Taiwan.” In summary, this study explores the changes in the global trade network between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and key countries after the pandemic with an exploration of global policy thinking and supply chain risk prevention after the pandemic. This study argues that the understanding of cross-strait trade relations should go beyond the traditional argument of international trade interdependence. Instead, the study provides a perspective for an objective assessment of the changes in the trade status of each country in the global trade network at a higher level.