海峽兩岸民眾對新冠疫情的樂觀偏誤、風險識覺與因應作為之前導研究

The Optimistic Bias, Risk Perception, and Responsive Behaviors Concerning the COVID-19 Pandemic of the Residents on the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strait: A Pilot Study

新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的流行造成全球公共衛生挑戰，雖然世界衛生組織對於防疫有共通性的規範，但在不同的國家或地區，因為習慣、文化、共同經驗的差異，對疾病風險的認知與預防行為有所差異。人們雖會保護自己的健康，但傾向認為別人比自己更容易染疫，此現象稱為「樂觀偏誤」（optimistic bias）。本研究探討臺灣與中國大陸居民對新冠疫情的樂觀偏誤，並嘗試以風險文化理論的群體－網格模型詮釋兩地樂觀偏誤的差異。此外，本研究亦探究樂觀偏誤與風險識覺、風險溝通和預防行為之間的關聯，和兩地受測者的個別變數與關聯的異同。本研究採用同一問卷，分別在兩地取得一千餘份有效樣本。結果顯示兩地受測者對新冠疫情均存有樂觀偏誤，且認為現居地較外國安全很多。大陸受測者的疫情恐懼感與接種疫苗的意願明顯高於臺灣受測者，而臺灣受測者的風險識覺較高，風險溝通行為與戴口罩、勤洗手、保持社交距離等風險預防行為則在兩地受測者間無明顯差別，各主要變數之間的整體關連則透過路徑分析探究。整體而言，中國大陸偏向網格化的階級主義社會著重控制與遵循規定，臺灣偏向平等主義社會著重社群、合作與信任關係，可嘗試用以解釋兩岸樣本的統計分析結果。

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to a global public health challenge. Although the WHO has a standard criterion for countries on how to respond to the pandemic, differences in risk perception and responses among countries and places exist because of varied habits, cultures, and general experiences. Even though people would protect their health, there is a psychological effect that they tend to think others will get infected instead of themselves, in which this is called “optimistic bias”. This study examines the optimistic bias concerning COVID-19 of the residents in Taiwan and Mainland China, attempting to explain the differences by employing the “group-grid” model in the Cultural Theory of Risk. In addition, we also explored the connections of optimistic bias to risk perception and risk communication/prevention behavior and the differences among the results of the major variables and their interrelationships. A standard questionnaire was designed, and over one thousand effective examples were collected in both Taiwan and Mainland China. Through the analysis, it was found that optimistic bias occurred for both groups. They both thought their places were much safer than other countries. Respondents in Mainland China had relatively more fear and had a higher will to be vaccinated than Taiwanese people, whereas those in Taiwan had higher risk perceptions. They did not significantly differ in risk communication behavior and risk prevention behaviors such as wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing. Path analysis was employed for examining the overall relationships among the variables. In general, the society of mainland China is more “grid” and has hierarchy, in which Mainlanders tend to follow command and control, while Taiwan is more egalitarian, emphasizing community, cooperation, and trust. In conclusion, these findings can be used to explain many results of the statistical analysis.