2020年總統選舉客家族群改投給蔡英文嗎？客庄與非客庄的分野

Did Hakka People Change Their Vote Toward Tsai Ing-wen in the 2020 Presidential Election? The Divide between Hakka and non-Hakka Communities

2020年總統大選蔡英文大勝，是否有吸引到藍營的客家族群選票？亦即客家族群的投票抉擇是否有改變？這是本文的問題意識。迥異於以往研究採用政治版圖的觀點分析客家族群的投票抉擇，本文嘗試援引「社會脈絡」(social context) 的概念，加以修正以適用於我國的情形，本文以是否居住在「客家文化重點發展區」區分客家族群所處的社會脈絡，分析在2020年總統選舉，社會脈絡對客家族群投票抉擇變化的影響。本研究採用「2020年臺灣選舉與民主化調查研究」的資料，以「多項勝算對數模型」(multinomial logit model) 進行檢證。研究結果顯示，客家族群的社會脈絡確實會影響投票抉擇。和2016年與2020年兩次總統選舉投票抉擇均一致的選民相比，2016年投給泛藍陣營的「客家文化重點發展區」客家人，在2020年比閩南人更傾向轉投給民進黨候選人。本文進一步發現，2020年總統選舉，就族群投票而言，在「客家文化重點發展區」客家人、非「客家文化重點發展區」客家人、閩南人、外省人此四類族群中，民進黨新增票源來自於「客家文化重點發展區」且上次投給泛藍陣營的客家選票之機率最高。

Tsai Ing-wen won a landslide victory in the 2020 presidential election. The question whether Tsai attracted Hakka voters from the “Blue camp,” namely, whether Hakka people changed their voting choice, is the problem of this study. Divergent from previous studies that analyzed the voting choices of Hakka people from a political territory perspective, this study invokes the concept of “social context,” modifying it to suit Taiwan’s situation. By distinguishing the social contexts in which Hakka people were situated based on whether they resided in “major Hakka cultural areas,” this study analyzed the impact of social context on the changes in Hakka people’s voting choices during the 2020 presidential election. In this study, data from the “2020 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study” were employed, and verification was conducted through a “multinomial logit model.” The results of this study demonstrate that the social contexts of Hakka people indeed influenced their voting choices.
In comparison with voters showing consistent voting choices in the two presidential elections in 2016 and 2020, the Hakka people who resided in major Hakka cultural areas and voted for the pan-Blue coalition in 2016 displayed a greater inclination to switch their votes toward the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate than Hokkien people in 2020. Further, this study discovers that in terms of voting results by ethnicity in the 2020 presidential election, among the four groups, namely, Hakka people in major Hakka cultural areas, Hakka people outside major Hakka cultural areas, Hokkien, and Mainlanders, the votes cast by Hakka people in major Hakka cultural areas who voted for the pan-Blue coalition in the previous election accounted for the highest percentage of newly added votes to the DPP.