韓流選舉政治事件對觀光產業類股之股價報酬率影響

The Impact of Han-wave Political Campaign on the Stock Performance of Taiwan's Tourism Industry

本研究利用事件研究法探討韓流選舉政治事件對台灣觀光產業類其股價是否產生異常報酬，並進一步檢定股票市場交易中，是否存在預知該選舉政治事件結果之現象並從而推論投資人之投資心態與行為。從檢定結果顯示，當韓國瑜當選市長事件日前一天、事件日當天及之後第一天與第二天之P值皆呈現非常顯著之水準，且平均異常報酬率皆為正向，此現象說明了台灣觀光產業類股之上市櫃公司在此韓流選舉事件中獲得投資人的信心追捧，從而導致其股價有普遍的正向顯著反應。再者，由檢測結果發現平均累積異常報酬在事件日之前無顯著反應，但從事件日起至之後五天皆呈顯著反應，亦即股價正向反應無法一次滿足到位，持續遞延數日時間，顯示了台灣觀光產業類股在反應此選舉事件之訊息時呈現弱勢效率市場的現象，且其股價反應並不具備事先預測選舉結果之能力，投資人在選舉結果出爐之前一刻仍舊抱持騎牆觀望之態度。

This study intends to examine whether the Han-wave political campaign resulted in significant abnormal stock rates of return on Taiwan's tourism industry by event study methods. In addition, we try to further explore whether the stock market possessed the forecasting capability to foresee the election outcome and hence realize investors' attitude and behavior toward the political campaign. Our empirical results show that positive abnormal returns were found significantly on the consecutive four trading days, which are the first day prior to the event, the event day and the next two as well. The results not only justify that that stock performances of tourism industry are yes indeed positively impacted by the Han-wave political campaign but also show that this event in Taiwan exhibited a weak form of securities markets based on their continuous lagging stock price abnormality. In addition, our findings highlight that the stock market did not possess the capability to foresee the election outcome in advance and average investors' attitude and behavior toward the political campaign tend to be prudent and just sit on the fence.