城際客運運具選擇市場區隔模式之比較研究

Market Segmentation of Intercity Passengers' Mode Choice

本文對臺灣地區城際客運的市場區隔方法深入探討。所採用的市場區隔方法有：1.精密的效用函數指定法、2.群集分析、3.修正的分類與迴歸樹法、4.同時建立市場區隔與選擇模式的內生市場區隔法。本文對四種方法的理論、函數指定、實證結果與各方法間的比較分析做了詳細的討論。所採用的個體選擇模式是多項羅機模式。研究結果發現修正的分類與迴歸樹法與內生市場區隔法的解釋能力良好，但後者不易校估。精密的效用函數指定法解釋能力亦佳，但區隔間之差異主要來自社經特性不同。群集分析的區隔能力不佳。

Using intercity passenger travel mode choice data collected in Taiwanarea, this paper discussed four different market segmentation methods, whichincluded: 1. refined utility function specification method, 2.cluster analysis,3.adjusted classification and regression trees method, and 4.endogenoussegmentation method that estimated segmentation model and choice modelsimultaneously. The theories, utility specifications, empirical results, andcomparisons of these models were discussed in details. The multinomial logitmodel was used as the base choice model. The empirical results showed thatadjusted classification and regression trees method and endogenous segmentationmethod had good explanatory powers but the latter method was not easy tocalibrate. The refined utility function specification method also had goodexplanatory power but the difference among segments were mainly caused by thesocio-economic characteristics of travelers. The segmentation ability of clusteranalysis was not good.