通勤距離與小客車持有混合需求模型之研究

Study on the Model for Mix Demand of Commuting Distance and Auto Ownership

本文旨在探討通勤距離與小客車持有之行為特性，此二項決策行為具聯立性與相關性，因此由二個單一方程式（通勤距離模型、小客車持有模型）組成一線性之聯立方程組，據以探究二者之個別影響因素與彼此間之相互影響關係，其中，通勤距離模型採迴歸方法建立，小客車持有模型則使用普羅比模式。構建之模型經以臺灣地區之家戶資料進行實證分析，獲致之主要結論包括：（1）家戶主要工作者會因持有小客車而有較長通勤距離之趨向；相對地，家戶主要工作者之通勤距離愈長其家戶持有小客車之傾向亦較大，亦即通勤距離與小客車持有之決策具有雙向影響關係。(2)影響通勤距離長短之最顯著因素為工作者之婚姻狀態、職業、年齡及家戶學齡小孩數。(3)影響家戶持有小客車之最主要變數包括家戶所得、學齡小孩數、小客車駕照數、小客車持有成本。

This paper intends to study the decision-making characteristics betweencommuting distance and auto ownership. These two decision-making behaviors areinterrelated and have the property of simultaneity. A simultaneous equationsystem is formulated which contains two equations one for commuting distance andone for auto ownership. The commuting distance is modeled as a regression modelwhile auto ownership is modeled as a probit model. Empirical analysis was donefor the Taiwan Area based on a disaggregate data set at the level of individualhousehold. The main findings of the empirical analysis include (1 ) The main-worker of a household owning automobile has the tendency of commuting longerdistance, and, vi 'ce ver 'sa. These indicated that the commuting distance andauto ownership have the relation of mutual influence. (2) It was found that themost effective factors influencing the commuting distance are the maritalstatus, occupation, age and the number of schooling children of the household. (3 ) The major factors influencing the auto ownership for household includehousehold income, number of schooling children, number of auto-license and thecost of owning the car.