暴力恐怖主義犯罪的生成與本土治理定量研究

基於新疆概率樣本的通徑分析表明，經濟狀況、就業就學、家庭生活、民族交往、幹群關係、宗教文化等大量犯罪以外的因素，對新疆地區分裂、極端、暴恐傾向的滋生具有顯著促成作用，故必須超越以犯罪打擊及治安防控為核心手段的通常應對思路，緊緊圍繞民族分裂與宗教極端這兩個關鍵點展開系統性的社會治理。伊斯蘭極端主義的治理途徑不是“去伊斯蘭化”，而是通過對伊斯蘭教義的時代解讀和“中國解讀”解構極端思想，積極推動伊斯蘭教的時代化與中國化，促成維吾爾穆斯林的現代化與世俗化。反恐、防恐、治恐的對策、手段和措施，都應採取科學的經驗方法並在中國本土情景中得到檢驗；同時應遵循理性、科學、適度、法治、實效的原則，既反對法教條主義，也反對法虛無主義。解決中國現階段暴恐問題的根本路徑是促進新疆與中東部地區，南疆與北疆，維吾爾族與我國主體民族的平衡發展和充分發展。

The path analysis based on the probabilistic samples in Xinjiang demonstrates that numerous factors besides crime including economic conditions, employment and schooling, family life, ethnic communication, relationships between cadres and the masses, and religious culture contribute significantly to the generation of the splittism, extremist and violent terrorism tendencies in Xinjiang. Therefore, systematical social governance shall center around the two key cruxes: ethnic splittism and religious extremism, which is beyond the usual governing way considering criminal crackdown and the prevention and control of public order as main measures. The governance approach of Islamic extremism is not ''deIslamization'', but through the modernized interpretation and the '' China’s interpretation'' of Islamic doctrine to deconstruct extremist ideology, promoting the modernization and Chinization of Islam and the modernization and secularization of the Uyghur Muslims. The countermeasures, means and measures of against, preventing and fighting terrorism should be tested in the Chinese domestic context with scientific empirical methods, adhering to principles of reason, science, moderation, rule of law and effectiveness and opposing both law dogmatism and law nihilism. The fundamental path of resolving the terrorism issue at the current stage in China is to promote balanced and full development between Xinjiang and mideastern region, southern Xinjiang and northern Xinjiang, and Uyghur and the dominant nationality of our country.