英文摘要 |
Northeast Asia is home to many of the world's most vexing territorial disputes. The territories in dispute need not cover the entire soil of a particular country in order to seriously strain interstate relationships. Even barely habitable offshore islands can serve as the most explosive bone of contention. In early 2005, the East China Sea (ECS) became a hotly-disputed area. In this paper will present two scenarios for how the dispute in the ECS could be managed and perhaps eventually resolved. The first scenario is idealistic. This paper assume that an impartial, external body, such as the International Court of Justice in the Hague, the new Law of the Sea Tribunal in Hamburg, or a great power conference, is entrusted with the task of resolving the dispute, and that all interested states are willing to accept its decisions. For several reasons (notably the unresolved status of Taiwan, China's and other states' opposition to external interference, and the mere impossibility of impartiality), this scenario is never going to happen. It is still of some interest, since it may point out some ways forward. The second scenario is more realistic. Instead of assuming that an impartial external body takes the decisions on behalf of the regional states, this paper assume that a self-interested, enlightened Chinese government assumes a leading role in managing and eventually resolving the dispute. |