布希全球戰略中的中國因素矛盾──認知與雙軌戰略的形成

The ''China Factor'' in Bush's Global Strategy: Making of US Ambivalent Perception and Dual-Track Strategy

布希政府在規劃美國全球戰略時，十分重視「中國因素」對國際與區域安全情勢產生的影響。美國在評估中國的國際與區域角色時，出現「矛盾認知」：一來期許中國成為「負責任的利害關係人」，與美國合作處理美國在全球戰略中關切的安全議題；二來擔心中國在國力崛起後，對區域安全構成威脅。此種「矛盾認知」導致布希政府將中國定位為處於「戰略十字路口」的國家，認為中國現階段的戰略意圖不明，「中國崛起」可能為區域情勢帶來正面影響，也可能帶來負面影響。基於前述認知，布希政府在全球戰略中處理「中國因素」時，兼採「領導/交往」與「對抗/防範」的「雙軌」戰略：一方面，採取「領導/交往」戰略，試圖透過說服與合作的方式，鼓勵中國與國際社會進行整合，期盼中國的國際行為能朝正面發展；另一方面，採取「對抗/防範」戰略，透過外交與軍事準備行動，嚇阻中國挑戰美國利益。觀諸未來，美國對中國「意圖」與「能力」的評估，將是個動態的過程，可能受到各種國內外因素影響。但不論美國的全球戰略是否出現變化，未來「中國因素」將持續為美國制訂全球戰略時必須關注的議題

On designing US Global strategy, the Bush administration put a great emphasis on the importance of the ''China factor''. The US assessments of ''China's rise'' are characterized by ''ambivalent perception''. On the one hand, the Bush administration expects China to act as a ''responsible stakeholder'' that works with the United States to advance the international stability; on the other hand, it worries that China will pose threats to international and regional security in the aftermath of ''China's rise''. Such ambivalence has led the Bush administration to see China as ''a country at strategic crossroads'' that can pose both positive influence and negative impacts on international security situation due to the ambiguity of China's strategic intention. The Bush administration is currently taking dual-track strategyleadership/engagement and confrontation/hedging - to deal with the ''China factor''. Washington counts on leadership/engagement strategy to encourage China to continue down the road of reform and openness, while it resorts confrontation/hedging strategy to deter China from challenging America's interests. For the future of US global strategy, it would depend on the continued assessments of China's ''intentions'' and ''capabilities''. No matter what strategy Washington will take to cope with the ''China factor'', the ''China factor'' will continue to be a key strategy issue for the United States in the decades to come.