緬甸軍政府轉型與民主化發展：2012年國會補選前後的觀察與分析

Myanmar's Military Junta Power Transformation and Its Democratic Development: An Observation and Analysis on the 2012 Congress By-election

本文分別以緬甸民主化歷史進程轉變和國會補選後的政策變化兩個層面，來闡述分析緬甸在2012 年4 月1 日國會補選，對緬甸民主發展可能產生的影響。緬甸民主化歷史進程的轉變是以時間軸為起點，以此分析不同時期緬甸的民主政治樣貌。國會補選後的政策變化也是以4 月1 日為基準，以各國對緬甸的政策變化與態度、以及翁山蘇姬決定宣誓就職用「維護憲法」作為主軸，藉此推論補選之後，對於緬甸民主化的發展與演進，究竟是會替緬甸民主化帶來萌芽的契機，抑或是會引導出另一種民主化的新模式，這些議題均值得進一步的研究與探討。

In November, 2010, after the presidential election of Myanmar, whose special ethnic politic was transform military authoritarian leadership to civil one, and the president Thien Sein seem had different mode in development of political and a work style of the leadership. In spite of the governing party was formed by forward generals, there were not have the final submission about the democratic reform yet. In April, 2012, after Myanmar 's Congress by-election, there was a sound between the international that discussed to revoke or relaxation Myanmar's economy of sanctions. In this article, I want to discuss about whether the congress by-election were becoming the main motive power to push Myanmar's progress of democratization. Therefore, in this article will discussing the effect to Myanmar 's progress of democratization after congress by-election in April, 2012. I will viewing this matter from two perspectives-one is the history of Myanmar 's democratization process of change, another is the change of policy after congress by-election. The history of Myanmar's democratization process of change will analysis different period of Myanmar's democracy. After April 1, 2012, the attitude of international toward Myanmar and Aung San Suu Kyi join the inauguration ''to uphold the constitution'' are the spindle of another perspectives I will analysis. The congress by-election whether bring the democracy to Myanmar or lead the new model of democratization, are worth to further research and investigate.