探索失敗國家問題研究分析架構：以奈及利亞為例

The Exploration of an Analytic Framework for Failed State Study: The Case of Nigeria

歐美學界已逐漸建立觀察研究失敗國家的架構及途徑，過去十年間，也已見跨國資料庫及綜合評量指標，如和平基金會提出「失敗國家指數」（Failed State Index）。相較之下，國內相關研究尚在初探階段，對於失敗國家一詞仍感陌生，多囿於軍事衝突、恐怖主義等理解，較少與國際決策及學術社群有所對話及接軌。本文旨在廣泛陳述關於失敗國家的概念、特徵、文獻探討，呈現問題研究的圖譜，並建立較具層次感的分析架構。另以一失敗國家奈及利亞為例，說明失敗國家研究取向可從治理、安全及發展三者相關，從中建立對失敗國家研究的問題意識及分析層次，並呈現出對失敗國家研究，整體而言可歸納係對一國政治、經濟及社會安全等整體的脆弱性之觀察與檢視，並對應外部風險之評估。

As compared with international academic community committed to the building of analytic frameworks, observable indications and assessment measures for failed state studies, Taiwanese academia has not yet seen the similar efforts. Failed state is still a young term for Taiwan, casting uncertainty and chaos to the IR policy makers and researchers, often inappropriately identified as the acronyms of terrorism. As such, for a better understanding of the terminology, concept, definition and agenda for failed state studies, this paper will present a trajectory of state failures and display some credible measurement indicators through a wide literature review and the case study of Nigeria. The purpose of the paper is to result in more coverage of analytic work for observation and evaluation of the state failures and the spillover risks. Through this article, it will be seen that the nexus between governance, security and development exercises a powerful explanation effect and illuminates the implication of fragility for theory and policy.