應對朝鮮半島突發事變的中國外交及軍事戰略

Mainland China's Diplomatic and Military Strategies toward the Korean Peninsula Contingencies

本文主要目的，在探討朝鮮半島爆發突發事變時，中國干預的可能性和戰略，以及韓國的應對方案。面對朝鮮半島突發事變，中國在決定對策時或將優先考慮以下幾點：（一）尋求朝鮮半島（特別是北韓）早日恢復穩定，以及控制核武器的方式。（二）中國認為在由朝鮮半島突發事變產生的新北韓政權，甚或統一的朝鮮半島，都不應具有反中傾向。（三）中國在考慮應對朝鮮半島突發事變上，認為應避免事態升級為國際軍事衝突。（四）為防止朝鮮半島突發事變演變為國際衝突，以及避免中美任何一方的單邊軍事干預。個人認為，在朝鮮半島突發事變的情況下，中國的干預形式大體上有「消極形式」、「中立形式」、「積極形式」和「攻勢形式」等選項。

China has a profound understanding of the strategies in the Korean Peninsula, and it is highly probable that it will intervene and engage if North Korean contingencies were to occur. China did not strictly deny the possibility of the direct intervention of PLA in unavoidable circumstances. More than a few experts on this matter claimed that China would consider active military intervention upon North Korea's private request or if the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces or the U.S. Forces alone intervenes during the contingencies. China's intervention in the North Korean crisis may evolve into a conflict within the South Korea-China relations as the case is closely related to the future unification problems of the Korean Peninsula. The North Korean contingencies may have dramatic implications on the China-North Korea relations but are also concerned with South Korea's ‘vital interest'. Chinese cooperation is essential for the stable management of the North Korean contingencies. With regard to the issue of the North Korean contingencies, sharing some common perceptions between South Korea and China may be the first step forward in security cooperation between these two states.