颱風假決策之研究：影響縣市首長決定停班與停課的因素

The Decision-Making of Declaring Days off in the Event of a Typhoon: Factors Influencing Mayors and County Magistrates in Suspending Work and School

在各式各樣的天然災害裡，颱風影響甚大，可說是政府行政最需要注意者。颱風假的決策是觀察縣市首長決策品質的一個有利場景，其牽連多方利害關係，但是首長們對外宣布的理由通常以「人民安全」為最高宗旨；目前文獻缺乏相關研究，縣市首長決定颱風假的決策過程也充滿問題，因此，本研究嘗試探索影響地方縣市首長決定颱風假的因素，瞭解其決策內涵。本研究利用相關理論與研究設定假設與變項，蒐集政府機關的二手資料，再使用邏輯斯迴歸與複迴歸分析釐清之。本研究收集2010至2018年間1,840件個案，結果顯示，第一，縣市首長正確決定颱風假的比率甚高，卻仍可能受到各方批評；第二，颱風假不只是專業性議題，政黨背景、民意趨勢也是縣市首長顧慮的因素；第三，縣市首長的決策追求符合法律標準，卻可能忽略了颱風造成災害的嚴重性。最後，本研究認為，除了符合法律標準，縣市首長也應該重視事前準備、事後救災避難、以及颱風可能造成的災害等，才能有效減少颱風危害。

Among various natural disasters, typhoons have a particularly profound impact, making them a major concern for the governmental administration in Taiwan. The decision-making process for determining when to announce days off due to a typhoon provides an opportunity to assess the quality of decisions made by mayors and county magistrates. This process involves multiple stakeholders with diverse interests, but the reasons publicly declared by these officials typically revolve around“public safety.”Currently, there is a lack of relevant research on this topic, and the decision-making process of mayors and county magistrates concerning typhoon day suspensions presents numerous challenges. Therefore, this study aims to explore the factors that influence the decisions of local mayors and county magistrates when determining typhoonrelated days off in order to gain a deeper understanding of their decision-making process. This study utilizes relevant theories, formulates hypotheses and variables, collects secondary data from government agencies, and employs logistic regression and multiple regression analyses to clarify these causality relationships. The study collected 1,840 cases from 2010 to 2018. The main results of the study reveal the following: First, mayors and county magistrates exhibit a notably high accuracy rate in their decisions to declare typhoon-related days off; yet, these decisions may still face criticism under different conditions. Second, the decision-making process for typhoon-related days off extends beyond purely professional considerations, as it also takes into account political party affiliations and public opinion trends. Third, while mayors and county magistrates strive to adhere to legal standards in their decisions, they may sometimes underestimate the severity of the disasters that typhoons can cause. In conclusion, this study suggests that, in addition to complying with legal standards, mayors and county magistrates should prioritize pre-disaster preparedness, post-disaster relief efforts, and addressing the potential disasters that typhoons may inflict to effectively minimize the hazards posed by typhoons.