「古阿姆五國論壇」發展之研析

An In-depth Analysis of Recent Development of GUUAM

在十一個「獨立國家國協」成員國當中，起初有格魯吉亞、烏克蘭、阿塞拜疆與摩爾多瓦等四國，因為不願接受俄羅斯為主導地位，且又希望尋求西方政經與軍事勢力之助，遂於一九九七年十月組成「古阿姆四國論壇」。兩年以後，烏茲別克斯坦宣告加入，成為「古阿姆五國論壇」。它主要是寄望於西方能保障其情勢穩定與協助五國儘速完全加入歐洲社會，但結果卻顯示出俄羅斯對於西方勢力不斷在「獨立國家國協」地區增強其作用有著極深的疑慮。自去年俄羅斯總統普汀上任後，一改過去態度，本著尊重的原則，主動而有計畫地對「獨立國家國協」成員國展開外交出擊，其目的即在於自二十一世紀起重新捍衛與發揮俄羅斯的地位與影響力，「五國論壇」因此出現變化跡象。

Of the eleven members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova formed GUMA, Group of Four firstly in October 1997 to demonstrate their unwillingness to accept the dominant role of Russia and desire to seek political, economic and military assistance from the West. Two years later, Uzbekistan joined the group and made it GUUAM, Group of Five. It is evident that these states wished the West would help stabilize its political situation and assist rapid integration into Eroupe. From the strategic point of view, CIS members are obviously uneasy with future policies of GUUAM. More specifically, it also reflects Russia's suspicion on the influence and penetration of the CIS by the U.S, NATO and so on, Since last May, Russian President Vladimir Putin has launched a diplomatic offensive to CIS area and also, to visit the Transcaucasian countries and other members of the CIS from the start of this year (2001) with the purpose of guarding Russian's position and influence in the region, and some signs of change has appeared so far.