台灣總統大選與台海安全：一個政治層面的分析

Taiwan's Presidential Election and Security in the Strait Area A Political Perspective

兩岸之間的關係自2002年下半年之後，即持續的惡化。陳水扁總統提出一邊一國的立場，繼而在總統大選時又提出公投及制憲的主張，在在均使中國覺得台灣有意推動台獨。美國基於反恐的需要，也力求維持台海的穩定，不願見到台灣因採取挑釁的政策，致使台海地區發生衝突。自總統大選前，美國即透過公開及私下的管道，要求台灣有所節制。在選後，美國更與中國形成共同的立場，聯手壓制台獨的發展。北京在選後所發表的《517聲明》，已呈現出中國對台灣走向台獨的強烈反對，並將採取和戰兩手並用的策略。陳水扁總統在選後所發表的就職演說，已展現出台灣有意緩和兩岸關係，避免軍事的衝突。台灣也必須努力修補因總統選舉所受損的互信。但台灣的努力是否能奏效，將取決於北京及華府對於台灣的信任與信心，台海未來的安全亦繫於此。

The cross Strait relation has deteriorated since the later half of 2002. President Chen shuibian proclaimed the stance of one country on each side of the Strait. Later on he proposed to hold a referendum and amend the constitution during Taiwan's presidential election. All these assertions have led Beijing to conclude that Taiwan intends to promote independence. The United States, due to its goal of antiterrorism, also wants to maintain stability in the Taiwan area and thus does not want to see that Taiwan takes provocative actions against China. Therefore, Washington had kept on demanding Taipei through both public and private channels that it should restrain itself from antagonizing China before the election. Washington and Beijing have gone further to cooperate on suppressing Taiwan's movement toward independence after the election. Beijing also explicitly expressed its strong opposition to Taiwan's moving toward independence and its strategy of combination of both war and peace in the 517 Statement released after the election. President Chen's inaugural speech demonstrated that Taiwan intended to pacify the cross Strait relations and avoided military conflict. For its own interest, Taiwan also has to recover the mutual trust with the United States which had been damaged during the election. Whether these efforts can work or not will largely depend on the trust by the United States and China in Taiwan. The future security in the Taiwan Strait is also decided by these relations.