中共東南沿海軍事集結對東亞安全之影響

PRC's Military Building-up in South-east Coast And the Affect to East Asia Security

冷戰結束以來，中共在外交政策上，推出最多的合作方案的地區莫過於東南亞，這是配合其以經濟發展為首要的國家發展戰略。而在這些合作方案中，又可分為軟性戰略與剛性戰略，前者以中共在2001年和東協簽署在2010年建立自由貿易區為主軸，開展和東協各國的經貿合作，包括湄公河開發計劃、興建亞歐鐵路等。而為了表示合作誠意，中共還和東協簽署遵守「南海各方行為宣言」，以及「東南亞有好合作條約」。不過，在剛性戰略方面，中共同時也在東南沿海地區集結部署先進的海空軍以及飛彈。特別是093、094型的核子動力潛艇的部署，這種屬於戰略性武器的部署，一定會引來東協國家以及美國的抵制，也一定會影響東亞地區的安全情勢，而屆時中共和東亞國家的關係，尤其是和東南亞國家的經濟合作也會受影響，值得關注。

Since Cold War ended, the diplomacy of PRC was transferred to his neighboring countries, especially in Southeast Asia area. PRC promoted many cooperation programs there to go with his economical development. On these programs, we might divide them into two parts. The one is soft strategy, such as establishing China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010, the Mekong River region developing cooperation plan, Eurasia Railway plan etc. In order to show his sincerity, PRC also joined the ''Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea'', and ''Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia''. The other one is hard strategy. In these years, PRC is building up his navy and air force high-tech weapons and missiles to southeast coast. Especially the ''093''and ''094''types of nuclear submarines, which are strategy weapons. They will make ASEAN countries and U.S. nervous and cooperate to against PRC. Of course it will affect the East Asia security posture and worsen the relationship between ASEAN and PRC. It is worth to concern.