中共跨世紀軍備發展策略分析

China's Strategy for Weapon Development toward 21st Century

自1991年的波灣戰爭後，中共即著手推動國防現代化，同時積極自外國引進新式作戰平台、武器系統、與軍事技術。目前中共的軍備發展正朝著「制敵機先」與「速戰速決」的作戰方式進行準備。為此，中共已將軍備現代化的重點置於以下幾點：（一）建構「外向型」海空軍武力；（二）部署新式飛彈；以及（三）發展進行信息戰與「不對稱戰爭」的軟硬體能力。冷戰結束以來，中共軍力成長速度超乎各界預期，尤其解放軍海空軍的運作與攻擊範圍已有明顯提升。然而，中共國防工業在自行研發先進武器的過程中仍遭逢許多問題，這導致中共越來越依賴外國尤其是俄羅斯的武器供應。過度依賴單一武器供應來源，將增加中共軍事現代化的「政治風險」。尤其俄國因為武器研發經費不足，已使其在許多軍事技術領域大幅落後美國。引進俄製武器裝備雖有助於加速解放軍現階段的現代化，但是長期而言，將不利於中共趕上西方國家的軍備發展。

Since the end of 1991 Gulf War, China has sought to modernize its national defense capability and purchase new combat platforms, weapon systems and military technologies from abroad. China is developing its weapon systems in the directions of ''actively taking the initiative'' and ''fighting a quick war.'' Based on such thinking, China has stressed the following few points in pushing for weapon modernization: (1) boosting the air and naval projection capability in offshore areas; (2) deploying next-generation missile forces; and (3) developing hardware and software for conducting information warfare and asymmetric warfare. Since the end of the Cold War, the operational range and offensive capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) air and naval forces have been promoted. Nevertheless, China's defense industries have suffered problems in designing and producing advanced armaments on their own. Such development has propelled China to rely more and more on weapon supplies of foreign countries, in particular, Russia. It should be noted that Russia itself is increasingly lagging behind the US in many technological areas due to the lack of funds. Importing Russian-made weapons could help speed up the modernization of PLA in the present stage. But in the long run, it will become a disadvantage to China in its catching up with the military development of the Western countries.