「南向政策」的重新評估：兩岸關係停滯下台灣的對外新策略

A Reappraisal of Taiwan's '' Southward Policy '': New Foreign Strategies Under the Stagnate of Cross-Straits Relations

台灣於1993年提出「南向政策」迄今屆滿十年，台灣與東南亞國家的關係有明顯的提升；然而，由於國際與區域情勢的變化、兩岸關係的高度不穩定以及內不政權的更替，台灣推動此一政策的道路頗為曲折。在中國大陸市場的「磁吸效應」下，台灣資本大量流向中國；為因應資本流失與產業外移大陸的衝擊，台灣提出「南向」思維與政策，企圖緩和「西進」的熱潮。南向政策推動初期頗見成敗，然而1997年東南亞金融危機是此一政策的重大轉折點。金融危機爆發後，「南向政策」似乎在突然間消聲匿跡，令人難以論斷此一政策究竟已宣告終止，或只是暫時停滯，甚或仍在持續進行。2000年台灣政權輪替之後，兩岸互動的長期停滯造成兩岸關係的持續緊張；近來台灣「重啟」南向政策之主義沸沸揚揚，成為打破兩岸關係僵局、開創對外關係契機的試金石。本文試圖論證：作為台灣經濟發展的一個延伸性政策，南向政策可說是一項長期的策略，金融危機後的「南向政策」並未中止，但是策略與執行都已調整；為釐清「重啟南向」的新意涵，本文擬以金融危機之後台灣與越南關係的發展為例，重新評估「南向政策」在當前台灣、中國、東南亞間的戰略價值。

Since the introduction of Taiwan's 'Southward Policy' in 1993, the last decade witnessed the development of intensive relations between Taiwan and Southeast Asian states. The road of implementing such a policy was zigzag, however, because of the changes of regional and international environments, the uncertainty of cross-strait relations and the impact of domestic power shift. Under the pressure of 'magnetic effects' that makes capital flows to China, Taiwan encouraged investment to Southeast Asia, raised 'Southward' thinking to cool down this 'Westward' fever. The 1997 financial crisis became the key conjuncture of this policy while the preliminary objects had been achieved. After the crisis, 'Southward Policy' seems to be evaporated. It is hardly probable that one can assert this policy has been terminated, just temporarily suspended, or still in operation. The 2000 presidential election reshaped Taiwan's domestic power structure as well as the cross-strait relations basis. The newly established leadership is, from China's perspectives, reluctant in promoting cross-strait interaction and tendentious towards pursuing Taiwan independence. When long stagnate of mutual dialogue soars the tension between Taiwan and China, Taiwan government reiterated the importance of 'Southward Policy' and reevaluated its strategies and effects. This article argues that, as an extended policy of Taiwan's foreign development, 'Southward Policy' is a long-term strategy that never been bypassed no matter in the financial crisis or in the boom-and-bust of the world economy. Besides, at current stage, Taiwan is on her way to 'restarting' this policy, Vietnam-Taiwan relations after the financial crisis has demonstrated the evidence and necessity of Taiwan's endeavours in continuing this policy.