政黨輪替後兩岸關係發展

Cross-Strait Relations after Chen Shui-bian's Coming into Power

2000年台灣總統大選結果，出現政黨輪替執政，具台獨傾向色彩的民進黨提名人陳水扁當選總統，為兩岸互動投入新的變數。陳水扁就任後的大陸政策基本上是政治面以政策宣示釋放善意為主，經濟社會層面採取實際行動釋放善意，以尋求中共善意回應，建構穩定的兩岸關係，新政府大陸政策主要為：建構兩岸和平關係架構、未來一個中國、台灣主權的確立與堅持、漸進推動經貿開放、逐步促進社會交流。面對台灣新的政治局勢，中共對台政策短期仍將保持不變，在原來的「和平統一，一國兩制」架構下，推動對台政策。台灣政黨輪替執政後，中共基本對台政策包括：聽其言觀其行、堅持一中原則但改變論述、持續採取武力威嚇施壓、推動兩岸三通、加強拉攏台灣民意。在台灣有限善意的大陸政策，以及中共消極的聽其言觀其行政策對應下，政黨輪替後的兩岸關係格局基本上維持了政治僵局，經貿民間交流持續成長的概況。此時期兩岸關係的特色包括：一邊一國論兩岸僵局難解、兩岸復談難有進展、外交戰持續擴大、潛在軍事衝突威脅、民間交流持續成長、上冷下熱左冷右熱的互動關係。對台灣而言，台海安全與台灣未來發展無法建立在國際的支持與中共的善意基礎上，最重要的還是台灣本身的力量。台灣應該加強經濟的發展，經濟實力才是台灣在國際社會受到尊敬的基礎，才是台灣持續發展，在兩岸互動中取得主導權的根本。

Chen Sui-bian won the 2000 Presidential Election in Taiwan, and it's the first time for an opposition party coming into power. The changing of the ruling party in Taiwan is a new variety for the cross-strait relations. In his inaugural speech, President Chen showed his goodwill toward Mainland China by addressing not declaring independence. Facing the new political changing in Taiwan, Mainland China's policy toward seemed not changed. Under the doctrine of ''one country, two systems,'' Mainland China's Taiwan policy includes: listening to the words and observing the deeds, insisting one China policy but changing the statement, continuing force threat, promoting three links, and striving for Taiwan people's support. Because of the highly distrust, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait could not express their goodwill progressively. The cross-strait political relations seemed stagnant, but the economic and civil exchange seemed actively. The characteristic of the cross-strait relations could be included as below: political deadlock, renegotiation seemed not easy, diplomatic war enlarging, latent military conflict threat, and civil exchange promoting. For Taiwan, the national security could not rely on China's goodwill or the support of the US. Developing economic power and enhancing the unity of Taiwan's public opinion would be the best policy for the long peace for cross-strait relations.