結合『移轉份額』模式與『經濟基礎』模式以分析地區資料之初探

A First Step Toward Integrating the Shift and Share Model with the Economic Base Model for Regional Data Analysis

移轉份額（Shift-and-Share）模式（S-S）雖極其爭議，但因其簡易且尚無替代而使其存活至今。在多方各種努力修正後迄今仍無定論。本文另闢蹊徑，將引用同樣資料但具理論關聯之經濟基礎模式與之結合，以增加其內容及合理性。文內所研擬之E-D模式係利用區位商數法以作結合媒介。然後以台北市及高雄市於民國70-75年及民國75-80年之商業就業人數變動作為實例示範，顯示E-D模式之操作，並與傳統之S-S比較，而探討其意義與發展潛力。

By virtue of simplicity the problematic shift and share technique has survived its criticism. But further efforts of revising the model are needed. This paper takes a very different approach toward the task. The well known economic-base model is proposed to be integrated with the traditional shift and share model through using the location quotient method, which requires the same data set as does the shift and share model. The integration is shown to increase not only the content of decomposition but also a priori explanation of the model. Employment changes in commercial business sector for Taipei and Kaohsiung during 1981-86 and 1986-91 are analyzed to illustrate the proposed E-D model with the results compared with the traditional shift and share model. It is argued that the former has a much promising future of development.