台灣地區住宅需求價格彈性與所得彈性之估計

An Estimation of Price Elasticity and Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Taiwan

住宅需求的價格彈性與所得彈性大小，對於住宅經濟學的理論與政策都有很重要的涵義。國內外文獻對於此二種彈性都有很多的估計，但或者由於模型設定的不同，或者因為資料不一，使得實際估計到的彈性有很大的差異。尚幸Polinsky（1977）及Polinsky and Ellwood（1979）提出了一個相當完整的估計方式，一方面考慮個別資料與分組資料的差異，一方面對房價與所得同時考慮下的模型設定，綜合分析各種情況下，推估住宅需求價格與所得彈性應該具有的合理範圍。本文藉用polinsky and Ellwood的方法，估計台灣地區住宅需求價格彈性與所得彈性的合理區間。就自有房屋而言，我們發現台灣地區的所得彈性應介於1.17至1.30之間，價格彈性別介於-0.45至-0.74之間；就租賃房屋而言，所得彈性應介於0.81至0.90之間，價格彈性別介於-0.94至0.99之間。

The right figures of price elasticity and income elasticity of housing demand have important policy implications. There are lots of empirical estimations on the two elasticities, but with a large discrepancy among them. Polinsky (1977) and Polinsky and Ellwood (1979) have provided a complete model to explain the disprepancies, mainly owing to model specification error and data difference. In this paper, we apply Polinsky and Ellwood's method to reestimate price elasticity and income elasticity of housing market in Taiwan. We find that, for the owner-occupied housing, income elasticity is between 1.17 and 1.30, while price elasticity is among -0.45 and -0.74. For the rental housing, the two figures are between 0.81 and 0.90 and between -0.94 and -0.99 for price elasticity and income elasticity, respectively.