所得、貨幣與房價──近二十年台北地區的觀察

Income, Money and House Prices: An Observation of Taipei Area for the Past Two Decades.

本文之研究目的在於探討所得、貨幣及其他與住宅供需有關因素之變動與房價變動之間的關係。為此，作者首先從設立住宅供需函數入手，去導出一個可供統計迴歸分析的房價函數模型，然後再利用經濟計量方法，以實際資料加以驗證，並針對所得到的統計迴歸結果，析述其中所具有的涵義。結果作者發現，雖然在所嘗試的迴歸模型中，並非所有的統計值都符合理論的預期（家戶所得與客戶增加數兩個變數的係數值出乎意料地呈現出不應有的負值），但以本研究所特別關切的兩個變數──貨幣供給量與預期增值率──而言，其實證結果卻完全符合作者預期，證實了過去二十年間台灣地區貨幣供給量的變動以及人們根據以往經驗所形成的對未來房價與物價的預期心理乃是台北地區房價之所以飆漲的主要原因。至此，作者在本文中所作有關此二變數與房價變動之關係的假說，已完全獲得驗證。

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between the changes of households' income, money supply and other factors pertaining to people's housing demand or supply and the changes of house price over time. To this end, the author first derived a price function for houses from the demand and supply functions of the housing market to work with regression. Then, the author proceeded to employ an economchic method called Yule-Walker procedure to estmate the parameters of the price function with various time series data that were collected for this empirical study. The results from the estimation were then analysed and the author found that, although not all the statistics turned out to be as expected- especially those of househelds' income and the changes in household numbers which have unexpected negative coefficients, the rest are neverthless good enough. The estimated coefficients of the key variables of this study -the money supply and the people's expected rate of appeciation of houses over time do have the expected sign and the required statistical significance and thus confirmed the author's surmise that the principal factors of the house price inflation that we have obsened in the past twenty years for the area of Taipei have been the irregular changes in money supply and the appreciation expectation with regard to houses that people have long built in their minds.