臺灣大學校園平戶杜鵑花期預測之探討

Prediction of Flowering Time in Hirado Azaleas in NTU Campus

本研究藉由2013年至2015年臺大校園平戶杜鵑花苞生長狀況和生育過程之數據，配合花苞寬為5.8 mm到盛花期（開花率50%）期間之溫度紀錄，估算此發育階段之累積溫量，以推估平戶杜鵑在此階段之溫量需求。首先，利用最小變異係數法（minimum coefficients of variations method; CV法）與標準偏差法（minimum standard deviation method; STDEV法）估算基本溫度（bass temperature）。結果顯示以CV和STDEV計算之基本溫度分別為12.1℃和13.4℃。比對2013年至2015年之紀錄，以CV值估算之盛花期，較實際盛花期差異之絕對值為2.33日，而以STDEV估算者為2.67日，差異很小。如以CV法估算之基本溫度12.1℃估算，在花苞長度5.8之後，累積溫量314.0日℃時，可達盛花期，平均誤差在6.4%。 This research studies the thermal requirement for the bud development of Hirado azaleas grown in National Taiwan University. Calculating through the bass temperature and accumulated temperature from bud to flowering, we can predict the flowering of azaleas in NTU. The accumulated temperature is gathered by the temperature data from 2013 to 2015 and two methods were used, and they were minimum coefficients of variations (CV) and minimum standard deviation (STDEV) method. The result shows that minimum CV method had less error than minimum STDEV method. According to the result of the minimum CV method, the bass temperature was 12.1°C, and accumulated temperature was 316.4°C-day. It means the thermal requirements of azalea from (bud width 5.8 mm) to full bloom bud stage was 316.4°C-day. Comparing with the really full bloom date of NTU azalea, the average difference of three years average was 2.33 days.