經濟景氣與生命末期照護相關字詞搜尋之關係探討──以Google趨勢分析

Macroeconomic conditions and Internet search for end-of-life care: an analysis using Google Trends

Objectives: End-of-life (EOL) care imposes a significant financial burden on most caregivers, but the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and people's EOL care awareness remains unknown. This study employed Google Trends (GT) to explore the association between Internet search for EOL care and macroeconomic conditions. Methods: The weekly average Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) weighted index from January 2008 to December 2013 was used as the macroeconomic index. Local Google searches for EOL care–related keywords from January 2008 to December 2015 were downloaded from GT. A series of correlation analyses was performed on the TWSE and the GT for each keyword at the concurrent time and at 3, 6, and 9 months later to ascertain the nowcasting and forecasting effect. Results: The GT indices for EOL care-related keywords were negatively correlated with the concurrent and previous TWSE indices. For each keyword, either the 6-month or 9-month forecasting effect was higher than the concurrent nowcasting effect, suggesting that worse economic conditions (lower TWSE) might be a factor associated with people's awareness of advanced EOL care. Conclusions: To better understand how people may be more sensitive to circumstances related to EOL care decisions, macroeconomic conditions and the implications of Internet search behavior should be further considered. 目標：照護生命末期的家人對許多照護者而言會造成龐大的經濟壓力，經濟景氣變壞是否與增加人們關心生命末期照護的訊息，尚未有探討。本研究藉由Google趨勢收集的資料，探討生命末期照護相關字詞搜尋狀況與經濟景氣之關係。方法：自雅虎財經網站下載2008年1月至2013年12月間的每週台灣加權股價指數作為經濟景氣的指標。從Google趨勢的網站下載台灣2008年1月至2015年12月間生命末期照護相關字詞的搜尋強度。分析方式為對各個關鍵字搜尋指數進行與台股大盤指數間的相關性分析，除了同期間指數與關鍵字搜尋指數的比較外，也分別對股價指數與各個關鍵字3,6,9個月後的關鍵字搜尋指數做相關分析，以探討股價對關鍵字搜尋具有同期效應或領先預測的效應。結果：整體而言，生命末期照護相關字詞的Google搜尋趨勢與反映經濟景氣的股市大盤指數間呈現負相關。股市大盤的股價走勢與其後的6個月後或9個月後的末期照護相關字詞相關性較為顯著，顯示當大環境經濟不理想時，人們對於生命末期病人照護的關切增加，人們想要了解安寧緩和療護的照護方式的搜尋行為也越多。結論：總體經濟景氣的變化與人們的網路搜尋行為有一定的關係，間接可幫助了解經濟環境與個人的臨終照護決策的相關性。