習政権二期目の中国の経済動向と政策–課題と方向性を探る–

習近平第二任期執政的中國經濟動向與政策――課題和方向初探（The Present Economic Situation and Policy in China under the Xi Jinping Regime in Its Second Term－Searching for Problems and Directions ）

處於關鍵轉捩點的中國經濟，強調著由高度成長轉向穩定成長，以及以供給側改革為主的結構性改革係至關重要且不可或缺之認知。再者，現今進入了習近平第二任期，不僅擁有非常強大權力，也被賦予極大的期待以展現具體成果。另一方面，雖然在權力集中下由黨所主導的政策運作，能夠讓改革有彈性地進行；卻也可能使得政策僵化或容易忽視其他意見，進而存在因為失去中間協調的角色等等而擴大副作用的疑慮。甚至極端的黨主導及政府權力的擴大，亦可能阻礙推動市場化。習近平政權在第二任期內所面臨的是，以下極為艱鉅之課題的挑戰：維持經濟、社會安定的同時，對結構改革進程採取果斷行動，並確實進行政府功能的重組而逐漸轉換至以市場為主體的經濟系統。關鍵在於中國對改革大刀闊斧的程度，其施政處理與成果將得到莫大的關注。 With China’s economy at a critical crossroad, it has been widely agreed that an economic shift from rapid growth to stable growth, as well as conducting a structural change concentrating on the reform of the supply side are both crucial and essential. Since the Xi Jinping regime is now in its second term with an extremely strong authority, most people are expecting to see visible results. On the other hand, although the concentration of authority and the political management led by the Communist-Party make the reform more flexible and drastic, but at the same time, they might also raise rigid policies, which would in turn disvalue the alternative viewpoints and enlarge collateral effects. If the Communist Party gets more power and the government becomes bigger than expected, the progress of the marketization will be limited. As a result, the Xi Jinping regime, in its second term, needs to take a decisive action on the process of the structural reform, and to proceed with the consistent restructuring of its government and its function. Shifting to the market-centered economy system in China is a great but difficult and complicated task. The point is how far China can take a scalpel to the reform, and is it noteworthy to see the process and end result of said reform.

With China’s economy at a critical crossroad, it has been widely agreed that an economic shift from rapid growth to stable growth, as well as conducting a structural change concentrating on the reform of the supply side are both crucial and essential. Since the Xi Jinping regime is now in its second term with an extremely strong authority, most people are expecting to see visible results. On the other hand, although the concentration of authority and the political management led by the Communist-Party make the reform more flexible and drastic, but at the same time, they might also raise rigid policies, which would in turn disvalue the alternative viewpoints and enlarge collateral effects. If the Communist Party gets more power and the government becomes bigger than expected, the progress of the marketization will be limited. As a result, the Xi Jinping regime, in its second term, needs to take a decisive action on the process of the structural reform, and to proceed with the consistent restructuring of its government and its function. Shifting to the market-centered economy system in China is a great but difficult and complicated task. The point is how far China can take a scalpel to the reform, and is it noteworthy to see the process and end result of said reform.