習近平にとってのトランプ政権: ポスト・エンゲージメントの波紋

當習近平遇上川普：進入後交往（Post-Engagement）時代的漣漪（Monarch Xi Meets Jacksonian Trump: China and the U.S. Enter the Age of Post-Engagement ）

川普總統的上台，宛若意味第七任總統安德魯傑克遜式的政治在美國民主史上再度重現。美國除了戰爭與貿易外，將不涉及、亦消極參與對外國際事務。將重心轉向內政的美國政策，顯然有利於成為「現代君主」的習近平，美國將不再干涉中國的內政。再則，在美國退出扮演國際事務之主導者的情況下，中國在國際社會中的存在相對得以強化。但是，實行君主制的中國在政治體制上欠缺魅力，在現今仍難以取代美國成為全球領導者。大國之君可謂危險的存在，易於強行通過不切實際的政策，亦可能以確保主權的名義發動戰爭。愛國主義者「傑克遜」也可能因保護人民的利益而毫不猶豫走上戰爭之途。目前「現代君主」與「傑克遜」共同朝向擴增軍備之路邁進。然而，美國在三年後的選舉中能夠政黨輪替，而有降低中美戰爭之可能的選擇權。另一方面，中國僅能依靠君主的「英明程度」，不得不說，這是一個非常危險的狀態。 The Jacksonian Revolt broke out in 2016. A modern day Jacksonian, Donald Trump, became President of the United States. Trump’s first job was to put “America first” just like Andrew Jackson had tried 190 years ago. Trump has little interest in taking up global leadership in the world. He dropped most of the “engagements” with the world, with China in particular. About the same time, in 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping became the “core” of the Chinese Communist Party, as the de-facto “Monarch” of China. President Xi took full advantage of the U.S. disengagement with the world. China now stands high in the international community. China is unlikely to replace the U.S. as a global leader, however. China’s political system lacks the provisions for civil liberties. China’s growing nationalistic pride and economic power are likely to antagonize its smaller neighbors in Asia. A monarch has little restraint by definition. He may take assertive and aggressive foreign policy, no matter how wrong they are. The Jacksonians share the same tendency with the monarch. Two presidents may get along by chance and by personal chemistry. They may also bring war.

The Jacksonian Revolt broke out in 2016. A modern day Jacksonian, Donald Trump, became President of the United States. Trump’s first job was to put “America first” just like Andrew Jackson had tried 190 years ago. Trump has little interest in taking up global leadership in the world. He dropped most of the “engagements” with the world, with China in particular. About the same time, in 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping became the “core” of the Chinese Communist Party, as the de-facto “Monarch” of China. President Xi took full advantage of the U.S. disengagement with the world. China now stands high in the international community. China is unlikely to replace the U.S. as a global leader, however. China’s political system lacks the provisions for civil liberties. China’s growing nationalistic pride and economic power are likely to antagonize its smaller neighbors in Asia. A monarch has little restraint by definition. He may take assertive and aggressive foreign policy, no matter how wrong they are. The Jacksonians share the same tendency with the monarch. Two presidents may get along by chance and by personal chemistry. They may also bring war.