21世紀中國與印度競合模式分析

A Study of Competition-Cooperation Between India and China in the 21st Century

本文從決策者角度探討中印關係中的競合模式。中印在國際間先後崛起之際，兩國之間充滿競爭與合作，且往往競爭多於合作。中印之間的競合模式多半是一種策略合作，進行務實的交往但保有平衡選擇。競合的時機取決於決策者對於議題相關成本與利益的考量。決策者希望在重要議題上合作，擱置爭議，為經濟發展創造一個和平的環境，但是保持可啟動平衡行動的選擇，作為避險。不過，因為缺乏互信，以及決策者面對的政治風險，有時策略合作中原本是備而不用的平衡選擇被啟動。例如，在2013年中，習近平與李克強為鞏固權力的避險動作，使得中國在邊界問題上立場保持強硬，導致互相平衡動作，使邊界變得緊張。但是，如果啟動平衡是為了促進合作的手段，則衝突升高的可能性就不高；不過對促進合作亦無實質幫助，反而加深不信任，限制了未來實質合作的發展性。印度在2014年產生新的執政者，面對要鞏固權力的習李政府，將會對中印之間的合作嘗試，產生新的挑戰。 This article studies the competition-cooperation model between China and India from the perspective of decision-makers. While China and India experience fast economic growths, there are inevitably competition and cooperation between the two. The choice to cooperate or compete depends on how the decision-makers perceive the interest structure of the engagement of the two countries on issues. However, oftentime it is not easy to judge whether the two countries are in a zero-sum or non-zero sum game on one issue. “Strategic cooperation” has frequently been adopted, which in its ideal form combines practical engagement with an open option of balance. The decision-makers of China and India want to cooperate on important issues and set aside disputes in order to create a peaceful environment for economic development whilst maintaining the option of activating balance act for hedging purposes. However, due to the volatility of interest structures, lack of mutual trusts and the political risks faced by decision-makers, sometimes, the balance act in the “strategic cooperation” is activated and led to mutual rebalancing. In 2013, the need of the new Chinese leadership to consolidate power reinforced China's tough stands on border issue, leading to mutual rebalance and tension on the border. However, given that the balance act was taken in order to push forward cooperation and relieve domestic tension, it is unlikely that border tension will escalate.It will not improve cooperation but will deepen mutual distrust and limit the development of bilateral relations in the future. In 2014, a new government was elected in India and the new leadership might cast new challenges on the bilateral relations.