2014年日本安倍首相解散眾議院之分析

A Study on Prime Minister Abe's Dissolution of the House of Representatives in 2014

日本首相握有解散眾議院的權力，眾議院解散後必然伴隨著眾議院的改選，而眾議院的多數勢力得以組閣執政，掌握國家龐大的政治資源。取得政權是政黨的最優先戰略目標，因此首相會選擇有利的時機解散眾議院。以往的研究指出，首相解散眾議院通常有先決條與最佳時機。但是，安倍首相於2014年11月宣布解散眾議院的狀況，不同以往，甚至安倍首相自身提出的以暫緩提升消費稅為解散的理由，對選民而言亦欠缺說服力。既然如此，安倍首相為何還是宣布解散眾議院？本文研究發現，除了安倍首相自身主張的理由外，安倍首相執意解散眾議院的真正目的有四：一是挽救內閣的支持率，二是牽制增稅勢力，三是推動安全保障相關法案，四是削弱在野勢力。 The Japanese prime minister is empowered to dissolve the House of Representatives, which sets a stage for a general election that enables the parliamentary majority to form a new cabinet. The prime minister will choose a favorable opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives in order to retain the regime. Previous studies have indicated that there are certain conditions and optimal timing for the prime minister to disband the House of Representatives. However, the dissolution announced by Prime Minister Abe on November 21, 2014 was different. Though Prime Minister Abe defended his decision for dissolution, his reasons were not persuasive to the voters. Thus, what is the underlying motive of Prime Minister Abe in disbanding the House of Representatives? This study answers with the following findings: (1) to shore up support for his cabinet, (2) to thwart tax-raising powers, (3) to promote security-related bills, (4) to weaken the political power of the opposing parties.