台北捷運藍線營運前後沿線發展變化之分析

ANALYSIS OF CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE AND AFTER MRT BLUE LINE OPENING IN TAIPEI

陸續完工營運的台北捷運系統造成居住、就業、休閒購物活動在空間結構上的分布與強度變化，了解捷運營運前後的沿線發展變化，有助於捷運車站地區發展策略的擬定。過去對都市空間結構的相關研究，大多利用傳統的統計分析方法進行，其明確性與主觀性較強，然而空間結構具有客觀認知的不明確特性，因此應使用不明確的分析方法。本研究以模糊推論建立居住、就業、休閒購物發展核心的分析方法，方法中利用實際調查資料建立模糊隸屬函數與發展核心認知，並據以建立模糊規則庫，進而引用規則庫進行發展核心的推論。在對捷運藍線車站進行的實例研究中，發現研究範圍內在捷運營運後發生以下變化：(1)居住發展核心減少，就業和休閒購物發展核心均增加； (2)居住發展核心機能減弱以及就業、休閒購物發展核心機能增強； (3)居住發展核心有向外圍退縮情形，就業發展核心有向外擴張情形，休閒購物發展核心呈現東區與西區鼎立的狀況。進一步針對板橋站進行政策敏感度分析，以工商樓地板面積增加之政策，考量各種發展情境條件，發現板橋站若要達到「可能是就業發展核心」或「應該是就業發展核心」程度，工商樓地板面積應較既有計畫再分別增加約 175% ~ 500%或 250% ~ 700%。

The distribution and intensity of residential, employment, and recreation- shopping activities in Taipei metropolis has been influenced by the MRT system, which has opened in succession since 1996. To understand the development changes of corridor before and after the MRT opening is helpful to make development strategies in the MRT station areas. The traditional statistics methods which depend on crisp and subjective concepts, were usually used to study spatial structure in metropolis. Since the recognition of activity cores is hard to define, it would be more suitable to be analyzed by the methods, which can objectively deal with uncertainty. The case study on the MRT stations of blue line was concluded as follows: (1) the number of residential activity cores decreased while employment and recreation-shopping activity cores both increased; (2) the function of residential activity cores was becoming insignificant while the function of employment and recreation-shopping activity cores was becoming significant after MRT opening; (3) the residential activity cores backed away from the CBD while the employment activity cores expanded outward, and two major recreation-shopping activity cores were formed in the east and west area respectively after the MRT opening. The strategic sensitivity analysis on Panchiao Station was analyzed by increasing industry and business floor area under four scenarios. It was found that whether Panchiao Station area might develop into an employment activity core or should be an employment activity core depends on the extent of its floor area increase, i.e., either 175 ~ 500% or 250 ~ 700%.