考慮選擇集合與異質性之個體城際客運選擇模式

DISAGGREGATE INTERCITY PASSENGER CHOICE MODELS WITH CHOICE SET AND HETEROGRNEITY

本研究利用自行設計的問卷蒐集敘述偏好數據，進行台南台北問城際大眾運輸旅客的旅運選擇行為研究。研究的目的在於探討選擇集合、個體異質性、與新方案加入市場對旅客的個體選擇行為之影響。研究結果發現以內生方式決定個體旅客選擇集合的兩階段選擇模式的解釋能力相當良好。旅行時問與旅行成本變數在兩階段選擇模式的選擇集合與方案選擇階段都發揮了作用。在異質性方面，不論是在選擇集合階段或方案選擇階段考慮個體的異質性均可顯著增加模式的解釋能力，但方案選擇階段的個體異質程度對模式解釋能力之影響大於選擇集合階段之影響。兩階段均考慮個體異質性模式之績效優於僅在單一階段考慮異質性之模式，而個體在不同階段的異質性可能主相影響。新方案高鐵加入市場對個體旅客的選擇集合與方案選擇均產生影響。

In this study stated preference data were used to examine travel behavior for passengers traveling between Tainan and Taipei. The purpose is to discuss the effects of choice set generation, individual’s heterogeneity, and the inclusion of new alternative in the market on individual traveler’s choice behavior. The results showed that two-stage choice models, whose choice sets were endogenously decided, had very good explanatory power. Travel time and travel cost variables affected both the choice set generation stage and alternative choice stage. Including heterogeneity in the choice set generation stage or alternative choice stage would significantly increase models’ explanatory power. The effect of heterogeneity in the alternative choice stage is greater than that of the choice set generation stage. The model considering heterogeneity in both stages obtained best results. The heterogeneity in different stages would affect each other. The new alternative high-speed rail would affect individual traveler’s choice set and alternative choice.