中國的資本流出與人民幣的國際化（Capital Outflows from China and Renminbi Internationalization）

中国からの資本流出と人民元の国際化

2008年雷曼兄弟破產事件之後，由於中國的經濟成長趨緩，以致經常帳順差大幅減少。而其資本與金融帳盈餘，雖有助於累積外匯儲備，但也在2014年之後出現赤字，即轉為資本淨流出。如上述，在2014年後，中國國際收支中的經常帳黑字和資本與金融帳黑字的「雙順差」消失，外匯儲備也大幅減少。除此之外，於2008年的金融危機之後，中國政府加速推動「人民幣的國際化」。本文發現，中國的大量資本流出（尤其是其他投資：現金和存款的流出）加速了「人民幣國際化」，而造成前述現現的主因在於關鍵的「離岸人民幣」（CNH）創設過早所致。本文同時證實，面臨離岸人民幣在香港的存款擠兌，離岸銀行從中國大陸提領「在岸人民幣」（CNY）存款，這也讓中國資本淨流出的情形反映在國際收支平衡表當中。面對巨額的資本外流，中國政府雖加強資本管制措施來因應，卻也可能因而延遲了人民幣國際化的進程。

China’s current account surplus sharply diminished as a result of itseconomic slowdown after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.AlthoughChina subsequently experienced a financial account surplus whichcontributed to the increase in its foreign exchange reserves, since 2014 thishas reverted to a deficit, resulting in net capital outflow. Despite this, sincethe 2008 global financial crisis, the Chinese government has vigorouslypromoted renminbi (RMB) internationalization. This paper argues that themassive capital outflows from China — especially the outflow of cash andsavings — that accelerated so-called ‘RMB internationalization’ were due tothe premature establishment of ‘offshore RMB’ (CNH) in Hong Kong.Moreover, this paper finds that the outflow of Chinese capital was alsoreflected in China’s international balance of payments, as a result of offshorebanks withdrawing ‘onshore RMB’ (CNY) from mainland China in responseto a run on offshore RMB in Hong Kong. Confronting these huge capitaloutflows, the Chinese government strengthened capital controls, delayingRMB internationalization plans.