一代比一代消費更多？ 國民移轉帳(NTA) 方法對臺灣幼齡人口消費的估計

ARE CHILDREN CONSUMING MORE OVER TIME? AN APPLICATION OF THE NATIONAL TRANSFER ACCOUNTS METHOD

本研究利用國民移轉帳的創新方法， 估算臺灣在1985、1995、2005 年年齡別人均消費型態，並聚焦於文獻中較少討論的幼齡人口。文中發現， 0–19歲之幼齡者實質人均消費愈來愈高， 增幅超過其他年齡組， 增加最多的是私部門的教育支出， 而財源主要來自家庭內的移轉。這些結果不但開啟了許多新的研究可能， 也含有豐富的政策涵義。從國際經驗來看， 日本孩童平均消費的提高可能促使育齡人口生育率降低， 而歐洲各高齡化國家之銀髮族因醫療費用高昂， 其平均消費與總體消費都超過其他年齡組。臺灣現正面對少子化與高齡化的雙重趨勢， 未來的勞動人口將減少， 總體成長可能變慢， 但老人福利政策正研議提高。未來社會資源應如何分配於各年齡組， 值得深思與進一步探討。

This study estimates the age profile of consumption patterns in 1985, 1995, and 2005 in Taiwan, using the newmethodology of National Transfer Accounts, and presents new results on children’s consumption. A major finding is that per capita consumption by children has increased rapidly, both absolutely and relatively by various standards, and has exceeded the increase of both primeage adults and the elderly. The rising children consumption mainly comes from high education spending, and is increasingly supported by intra-familial transfer. These results carry important policy implications, given that the Taiwan is experiencing an extremely low fertility rate and rapid population aging on the one hand, and is pondering the implementation of more elderly welfare programs on the other. Thus the resource competition between age groups is expected to accelerate while long-term economic development may be unfavorably affected. These findings deserve further thoughts and invite deeper studies in the future.