川普政權外交政策之展望與東亞國際秩序體系再編制之可能性（Prospects U.S. Foreign Policy under President Trump and the Potential for Re-organizing the East Asian International Order）

トランプ外交の展望と東アジア国際秩序再編への可能性

本文分析川普政權的主政核心人物多未曾有參政相關經歷，主張本國優先主義及排外主義，亦絲毫不介意和各省廳擬定政策之專業人士對立，且缺乏以建構國際秩序為本位，擬定具體的外交政策的能力，只純粹否定既有的政策，並在政權居於政治頹勢之時，採取和選戰相同的策略，亦即博取核心支持者的認同，重返主控台。川普政權雖視恐怖組織ISIS 的反恐政策或移民政策，以及本國經濟優先之貿易政策為首要任務，然而對於北朝鮮加強戒備。對中關係方面，以中長期而言，充滿許多使兩國關係惡化之要素。川普政權對於較具象徵性的領域過度關注，卻對於全球國際秩序缺乏關心，以穩定地參與國際事務而言，可說是失敗路線。同時也為冷戰後的國際秩序，及世界區域秩序再建構帶來嚴重衝擊。短期而言，川普總統和安倍晉三首相兩個元首之個人交情，某種程度更加深川普政權之於國際社會的孤立感。在這樣的局勢之下，日本可能成為美國除了英國之外，唯二的夥伴，然而，以日美關係而言，亦無從斷言能夠維持長期穩定的雙邊關係。

Many core figures central to the Trump Administration lack prior experience in government, while American Exceptionalism and xenophobia have gained currency. Despite the opposition of policymaking professionals across various government agencies, and instead of formulating a concrete, internationalist foreign policy, the Administration is simply denying the conventional wisdom of established policymaking. Further, as Trump’s political fortunes begin to wane, the Administration appears to be adopting the same reactionary tactics of the 2016 Presidential election by appealing to its core support base. Although the fight against ISIS, immigration policy and Trump’s ‘America First’ economic agenda remain the focus of foreign policy, greater precautions are being taken against North Korea and various factors could cause U.S.-China relations to deteriorate in the longer-term. To date, the Administration has concentrated on relatively symbolic issues, all the while neglecting the stability of the international system and forfeiting its capacity to participate in international affairs. This adjustment represents a significant challenge to the post-Cold War global and regional orders. In the short term, as the Trump Administration’s isolation from international society deepens, the close personal relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may render Japan America’s only international partner alongside the United Kingdom. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether this situation would be sustainable in the long-term.