探討電子商務研究發展方向的過去、現在與未來

An empirical study of e-Learning Research Trends by Past, Present and Future

本研究的目的希望能探討電子商務的發展趨勢，我們從文獻探討與書目計量學的觀點，去探究全球電子商務未來的整體發展。本研究從國際學術期刊Social Science Citation Index（SSCI）資料庫，使用「e-commerce」作為關鍵字，檢核1996至2013年間的期刊文章。在研究流程方面，本研究先依據八個不同的類別，把全球電子商務的期刊文獻依不同的出版年代、文獻引用、出版國家、出版機構、文獻型態、使用語言、學科種類與出版期刊，對其進行歸納與整理分析。同時本研究中也將使用洛卡定律的柯史檢測（K-S test），來分析期刊文獻與作者生產力的分布情形。透過以上的研究，本文期望可以作為全球電子商務往後的研究、技術趨勢和預測的摘要，同時也期望促進知識的積累與技術擴散提供指標參考方向。這意味著在優秀期刊中，經常會產生學術領域的領導學者與優良文獻。

This study applies bibliometric methodology to analyze e-commerce research trends from 1996 to 2013 by locating headings “e-commerce” in topics in the SSCI database. The bibliometric analytical technique is used to examine the topics in SSCI database from 1996 to 2013, we found 3259 articles in the fields. This paper implements and classifies ecommerce articles using the following eight categories — publication year, citation, country/territory, document type, institute name, language, source title and subject area — for different distribution status in order to explore the differences and how e-commerce technologies have developed in this period to analyze e-commerce research tendencies under the above result. Also, the paper performs the K-S test to check whether the analysis follows Lotka’s law. This analysis provides a roadmap for future research abstracts technology trend information and facilitates knowledge accumulations so that e-commerce researchers can save some time since core knowledge will be concentrated in core categories. This implies that the phenomenon 'success breeds success' is more common in higher quality publications.