利用滾動無偏灰色模型預測甲烷排放量：以台灣為例

Using Rolling Unbiased Grey Model to Forecast CH4 Emission in Taiwan

隨著人類的進步，經濟發展所帶來的生態環境改變，已經是不能忽視的嚴重問題。在這當中，溫室氣體一直都是這十年來存在的問題，然而平均溫度逐年提升使得海平面也隨之上升，這已造成台灣的國土面積勢將受到衝擊。大家都認為二氧化碳（CO2）是造成溫室氣體最大的主因，但是甲烷（CH4）更特別需要去注意，每噸甲烷造成全球暖化的威力，最新的方式是以20年來計算，得出甲烷的溫室效應比二氧化碳強72倍。本研究使用滾動模型建模決定期數和無偏灰色預測來進行分析，針對能源部門、工業部門、運輸部門以及總排放量來分別探討，結果得知平均誤差皆小於10%，也代表具有高準確的預測。而2013年至2015年總排放量為17236.777、16892.945、16555.972，整體看來，台灣的甲烷排放量有逐漸下降的趨勢，對整體環境是件好的事情。除了政府的所制定的防範政策以及各方面宣傳，無論是能源部門、工業部門、運輸部門…等，彼此都應該要有約束力，共同維持這個環境。

With the development of technology, the development of industry, it has caused the ecological environment changes. So the environmental issue is a serious problem, and human have to solve it. Over the past decade, greenhouse gas was a major cause of global warming issues, and it causing current sea level rise. Especially, it influences island countries like Taiwan. Most people thought CO2 was the main reason causing of global warming, but CH4 was neglected. In terms of the latest calculated, CH4 was 72 times higher than CO2 in greenhouse effect. This study using the Rolling Check Model and Unbiased Grey Forecasting Model, and energy sector, industrial sector, transport sector and total emissions for investigate respectively. The results were averages error of less than 10%, and it represents a highly accurate prediction. The total emissions were 17236.777, 16892.945 and 16555.972, from 2013 to 2015, and the emissions of CH4 decreased gradually in Taiwan, which is good for the problem of environment. In addition it formulates the policies prevention and publicity by government. But whether are energy, industry, and transport, and etc. We should to work together to maintain our environment.