2016 台灣總統及立法委員選舉分析

An Analysis of the 2016 TaiwanesePresidential and Legislative Elections

在2016 年1 月16 日的總統與立法委員選舉中，民進黨總統候選人蔡英文以56%的得票率擊敗了國民黨提名的朱立倫，並一舉在立法院取得了68 席，締造了史無前例的過半優勢。本文從兩岸關係與中國因素及競選議題及候選人政見分析蔡英文勝選的主要因素，並進一步利用調查資料檢視選民歷年來政黨認同的變化。資料顯示國民黨及泛藍陣營極可能已出現支持者大量流失的政黨解組現象。然而是否會導致政黨權力分配的長期變化則仍有待觀察。

In the presidential and legislative elections on Jan 16, 2016, the DPPpresidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen garnered 56 percent of the popular vote,defeating KMT candidate Eric Chu by 3.08 million votes. Moreover, the DPPwon 68 out of 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan—scoring an unprecedentedlegislative majority.This paper sets out to examine Tsai’s winning factors from thecross-strait relations, the China factors, and respective presidentialcandidates’ platform. It further dynamically investigates voters’ change inpolitical party identity from recent survey datasets. The data shows that theKMT and the pan-blue coalition might have faced a great deal of loss in theirelectorate, a sign of party dealignment. Nevertheless, whether such a loss willfurther contribute to a long-term power struggle between political partiesremains an objective of active investigation.