應用灰色理論預測台灣遊覽車乘載人次之研究

Using Grey Theory to Forecast the Study of Tour Bus Passengers in Taiwan

近期觀光政策的開放及休閒活動的重視，使台灣觀光與相關產業蓬勃發展，因此本研究主要目的，是利用灰色理論建立台灣遊覽車乘載人數之預測模式，作為建立遊覽車產業預測模式之依據。研究範圍從2009年至2012年台灣遊覽車及各地區之乘載人次，應用灰色理論中GM（1,1）模型及傳統預測方法的指數平滑法、簡單線性迴歸來做預測分析，再利用平均絕對百分比誤差（MAPE）來衡量模型的績效與準確度，找出最佳預測模型，探討台灣與各地區遊覽車乘載人次之需求，以幫助遊覽車產業未來趨勢與策略價值。

In recent years, people start to focus recreational activities, and the government is permitting tourists to visit Taiwan, so made the industry of tourism is developing gradually in Taiwan. This study is using Grey Theory to construct the forecasting model by take tourist bus the number of persons. The data is take tourist bus the number of persons from 2009 to 2012, there are four documents, and applied GM(1,1) Model, Exponent Smoothing and Regression Analysis to forecast and analysis, and using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to measure the performance and the accuracy, and then to choose the best forecasting model. This study discusses the demand of take tourist bus the number of persons in Taiwan, and provides the reference for the industry of tourist bus.