目標區與農產品價格的穩定：小型開放經濟之分析

Target Zones and Agricultural Price Stabilization in a Small Open Economy

維持農產品價格的穩定是許多國家重要的政策之一，政府為能平抑國內農產品價格，往往制定不少穩定價格政策，包括平準實物制度、平準基金制度…等。本文旨在浮動匯率制度下，探討政府實施農產品價格目標區政策時，農產品價格是否會產生如Krugman (1991)所言的“蜜月效果”，同時也說明此一目標區政策對非農產品價格之影響。本文發現，政府設立農產品價格目標區，是否會導致農產品價格更為不穩定，端視資本移動程度、農產品的財富效果與農產品的價格效果的相對大小，以及政府從事價格干預的實施方式而定，亦即Krugman(1991)所言之“蜜月效果”不一定存在。

Stabilizing agricultural product prices is one of the important food policies in most developed and developing countries. In general, the government provides several stabilizing policies to stabilize agricultural prices, including buffer stock scheme and stabilization fund scheme. This paper develops an open economy model under flexible exchange rate regime, and investigates whether the honeymoon effect proposed by Kmgman (1991) is present when the government adopts a target zone policy on agricultural product prices. We find that whether the announcement by the government to defend the agricultural price target zone will reduce the volatility of agricultural product prices and non-agricultural product prices, depends upon: (i) the degree of capital mobility; (ii) the relative magnitude between the price effect and the wealth effect of agricultural product; (iii) the implementing instruments of stabilizing policies.