貨幣供給與進口物價對台灣地區農工產品價格影響之長短期效果：共整合方法之應用

The Impacts of Changing in Money Supply and Prices of Imported Commodity on the Prices of Taiwan Agricultural and Industrial Products in the Short and Long Run: A Cointegration Approach

本文研究目的旨在探討台灣地區的貨幣供給、進口產品價格與農業產品價格、製造業產品價格相互影響的長期關係及其短期動態調整過程。根據本文實證結果顯示，長期下貨幣供給增加若真的導致國內物價膨脹的現象，則此種物價持續上漲的現象，較可能是因農產品價格而非製造業產品價格上漲所造成，此外，若長期下國內真有輸入性物價膨脹的問題，那麼起因應是國內製造業產品價格的上漲而非農業產品價格的上漲。在變數的短期動態調整方面，根據實證結果，短期下貨幣供給的變動並不會對農、工產品的相對價格造成顯著的影響，此外，導致農產品價格上揚的主要因素為其自身落後期價格的波動，而導致製造業產品價格上揚的因素則為落後期的農產品價格及進口工業原料與產品價格的上漲。

This study tries to examine the impacts of changing money supply and prices of imported goods on Taiwan agricultural and manufacturing prices in the short- and long- run. The empirical results indicate that, in the long-run, if increasing money supply lends domestic price inflation, it is caused by the raising agricultural prices more than by manufacturing prices. If prices of imported products cause domestic price inflation, it is most taken into account by the raising prices of industrial commodities. In the case of short-run dynamic process, changing in money supply may not cause both the agricultural and manufacturing prices to boom, the raising prices of agricultural products is mainly due to the volatility of its lagged prices while the raising prices of manufacturing goods is most caused by the increases of lagged prices for agricultural commodities and the raising prices of imported material and goods.