戰前台灣菸葉生產之成長來源分析－－技術進步與政策誘因

Sources of Growth of Tobacco in Colonial Taiwan-- Technical Progress and Policy Incentives

本文旨在有系統地分析戰前台灣菸葉之成長來源。菸葉雖然在政府財政及專賣政策上深具重要性，但菸葉產品之發展在過去並未受重視。其主要的關鍵是缺乏一種能將品質與數量因素適當區分之方法，導致技術進步與政策誘因效果無法明辨。本文提出一個指數分解法來具體衡量菸葉生產成長的來源，除將生產的成長分解為面積、價格和技術的變化，並將技術進步區分為品質和數量兩方面。藉此分解分析，許多過去的研究所無法處理的經濟問題都可以進一步作探討，特別是對技術進步的本質和政策的效果都作了更清楚的理解與分析。研究結果發現：在戰前時期菸葉之生產上，面積控制遠超過價格效果，品質提升亦較數量增加為重要。這些發現均有助於我們對菸草這種具異質特性產品之了解。

This paper seeks to account systematically for the sources of tobacco growth in colonial Taiwan, The development of tobacco has not been understood adequately in the past, despite of its importance in public finance and many other areas. It is due mainly to the lack of a proper method to distinguish between quantity and quality changes and to an inability to separate between policy incentives and technology progress. By decomposing the sources of tobacco growth into acreage, price, grade structure and quantity effects, we are able to look more carefully into all stages of tobacco's life cycle. We find that acreage control was more prevalent than price controls, and quality upgrading was more significant than quantity increase. These new findings help to enhance our understanding of this important agricultural product.