台灣農業多因素生產力長期趨勢的探討

The Long-Run Trends of Multifactor Productivity in Taiwan Agriculture

本文採用影子定價的原理來建立一個農業生產力長期趨勢的評估模型，所建構生產力基本模型包括兩固定投入－－變動投入的函數內涵與考慮短期調整成本之觀念，並以本文所推計的農業投入（考慮其異質特性）與推計之農業產出（配合其未來規劃方向）等調整後資料進行生產力指數分析。經資料推計與實證測度之後顯示，四十餘年來我國農業多因素生產力大致為「先升後緩降」走勢，且歷年來產能利用率有下滑現象，由民國43年的87.81％，降至62年的85.36％，再降至78年的83.32％。此外，我農業多因素生產力衰退階段在70年代尚不太明顯，明顯的衰退現象遲至其十年後的80年代初期方顯現出來，成為該產業生產力長期趨勢的特色之一。

The previous measures of multifactor productivity growth have been based on homogenous inputs, and have assumed all inputs are instantaneously adjustable, and thus ignore the important impacts of short-run fixity of certain primary inputs (not intermediate inputs). The main objective of this paper is to construct indexes of long-term agricultural multifactor productivity growth since 1952. The indexes take into account the adjustment of the observed productivity measures. Empirical results find that pervasive and chronic excess capacity exists in Taiwan's agricultural sector. In addition, it is found that the multifactor productivity growth decline slowly in the 1980's and more repidly in the 1990's.